Apple Q1 Earnings: Live Updates on Sales and Profit Results, Analyst Call

Apple stock rose 1.1% to $186.49 Thursday afternoon ahead of its first-quarter earnings report.

The gain slightly outpaced the S&P 500's gain of about 1%, and was just below the Nasdaq 100's gain of 1.2%.

Apple stock has been flirting with all-time highs in recent weeks. While the stock is down just over 3% year-to-date, it is up 9% over the past three months and has surged 29% over the past year.

Apple stock would have to surge 7% from current levels to eclipse its previous record high of $199.62, which it reached last month.

Apple should deliver "in-line" results on Thursday, with much of the debate among Wall Street shifting to guidance, ongoing regulation issues, and the strength of the App Store, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs.

The bank expects Apple to report earnings per share of $2.10, revenue of $117.4 billion, and gross margins of 45.0%, with iPhone revenue jumping 3% year-over-year thanks to the iPhone 15 lineup. But other product lines should see a decline in revenue growth.

"We expect double-digit revenue declines in iPad (-22% year-over-year) and Wearables, Home, and Accessories (-14%) on difficult year-ago comps that benefited from new product launches," Goldman Sachs said.

Meanwhile, the bank expects Apple's Services revenue to grow 11%, driven by recent price increases and a pickup in App Store sales.

"We'd expect Services revenue to benefit from increasing penetration of all services, particularly iCloud+ as data consumption growth outpaces device storage and AppleCare+ as devices become more expensive and the mix of direct sales (and opportunities to sell AppleCare+ directly) increases," Goldman said.

Goldman Sachs rates Apple at "Buy" with a $223 price target.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said Apple will likely beat its first-quarter revenue and profit estimates on Thursday even with growing investor concerns about its iPhone sales.

"The big focus on the Street naturally will be on iPhone and double-digit growth for Services revenue which we both believe performed relatively well during the holiday quarter as the $68 billion iPhone revenue bogey and $23 billion Services estimate are hittable/beatable," Ives said in a note on Wednesday.

China iPhone sales, which represent about 20% of the company's total iPhone sales, will be a big focus on the earnings call as competition from Huawei increases — but according to Ives, sales trends have been steady.

Wedbush rates Apple at "Outperform" with a $250 price target.

Profit results should have a bigger impact on Apple's stock price than revenue, according to a recent note from JPMorgan.

The bank said investors should have largely moved past concerns about iPhone sales weakness, with recent data points such as Apple rising past Samsung to become the global market leader in smartphone shipments offering encouragement.

"With the robust sell-in volumes in F1Q24, current expectations from investors have moved to a modest beat led by robust iPhone numbers, even though accompanied on the flip-side by above-seasonal iPhone decline into F2Q," JPMorgan said.

JPMorgan rates Apple at "Overweight" with a $225 price target.

Apple's iPhone sales in China have faced several headwinds in recent months as weakness in the Chinese economy has become more apparent, and that could have an impact on Apple's first-quarter results.

"Apple's 1Q results will likely indicate iPhone sales pressure in the greater China region amid increased competition from Huawei and reduced consumer spending," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anurag Rana said in a recent note. 

Rana also wrote that in addition to commentary about potential App Store changes due to regulations, investors will be eager to hear about progress in the launch of the Vision Pro. Rana estimates that Apple could generate $1.5 billion in Vision Pro sales this year.

1st quarter

• Revenue estimate: $117.97 billion

• Products revenue estimate: $95.14 billion

  • iPhone revenue estimate: $68.55 billion

  • Mac revenue estimate: $7.9 billion

  • iPad revenue estimate: $7.06 billion

  • Wearables, home and accessories estimate: $12.02 billion

• Service revenue estimate: $23.37 billion

• Greater China rev. estimate: $23.5 billion

• EPS estimate: $2.11

• Operating cash flow estimate: $34.58 billion

• Total operating expenses estimate: $14.62 billion

• Gross margin estimate: $53.56 billion

• Cash and cash equivalents estimate: $38.81 billion

• Cost of sales estimate: $65.01 billion

• Total current assets estimate: $157.25 billion

• Total current liabilities estimate: $142.36 billion

Source: Bloomberg