I've been saying since the release of the 15" M2 MBA that Apple will still launch a 15" M3 MBA this year. Apple will keep the M2 version on sale at the current price point (so people who already bought don't feel too ripped off), and Apple will price the 15" M3 MBA at a $200 premium.

As Bloomberg/9to5Mac points out M3 15-inch MBA has been found in developer logs:

• M3 13-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,1 and J513/J613)
• M3 15-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,2 and J515/J615)
• M3 13-inch MacBook Pro (codenamed Mac 15,3 and J504)
• M3 iMac (codenamed Mac 15,4, Mac 15,5, J433 and J434)
• M3 Pro and M3 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros (codenamed Mac 15,7, Mac 15,8, J514 and J516)
• Possible M3 Mac mini (codenamed Mac 15,12)

Now sure, maybe they just upgrade the 13" MBA in October to the M3, but that would be ultra confusing to the consumer ("Why does the 13" version have a more powerful chip?") and thus further hurt 15" MBA sales.

I'm betting the M3 15MBA is coming in October.

Possible, but highly unlikely. The M2 15" MBA was made available on June 15. Refreshing after merely 3 months? That would be a new record for Apple.

vanc said:

Possible, but highly unlikely. The M2 15" MBA was made available on June 15. Refreshing after merely 3 months? That would be a new record for Apple.

There's actually precedent for Apple doing this. In March 2012 they came out with the iPad 3. In October 2012 they came out with the iPad 4.

This developer log thing doesn't really give us a good timeline unfortunately. For example, we saw the M2 Mac mini show up in logs for at least 8 months before launch.

Will an M3 MacBook Air be significantly more powerful than an M2 MacBook Air? The M3 MacBook Air will likely be limited to the base M chip, right? Is the current base M2 limited in any way for the intended use (basically as an office computer)?

SW3029 said:

I've been saying since the release of the 15" M2 MBA that Apple will still launch a 15" M3 MBA this year. Apple will keep the M2 version on sale at the current price point (so people who already bought don't feel too ripped off), and Apple will price the 15" M3 MBA at a $200 premium.

As Bloomberg/9to5Mac points out M3 15-inch MBA has been found in developer logs:

• M3 13-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,1 and J513/J613)
• M3 15-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,2 and J515/J615)
• M3 13-inch MacBook Pro (codenamed Mac 15,3 and J504)
• M3 iMac (codenamed Mac 15,4, Mac 15,5, J433 and J434)
• M3 Pro and M3 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros (codenamed Mac 15,7, Mac 15,8, J514 and J516)
• Possible M3 Mac mini (codenamed Mac 15,12)

Now sure, maybe they just upgrade the 13" MBA in October to the M3, but that would be ultra confusing to the consumer ("Why does the 13" version have a more powerful chip?") and thus further hurt 15" MBA sales.

I'm betting the M3 15MBA is coming in October.

Click to expand...

Hoping you didn't go to Vegas with this. If so, you're about to lose some money!

Yebubbleman said:

Hoping you didn't go to Vegas with this. If so, you're about to lose some money!

Haha. We shall see! But I also did predict that Apple would put the M1 chip in the iPad Pro and everyone here told me I was insane. Then it happened.

Adelphos33 said:

Will an M3 MacBook Air be significantly more powerful than an M2 MacBook Air? The M3 MacBook Air will likely be limited to the base M chip, right? Is the current base M2 limited in any way for the intended use (basically as an office computer)?

No, it shouldn't be more powerful (maybe ~10% more or so at best). But the big thing is it will be much more energy efficient. So now the M2 gets about 18 hours of battery life on average. The M3 could average about 22 hours.

SW3029 said:

There's actually precedent for Apple doing this. In March 2012 they came out with the iPad 3. In October 2012 they came out with the iPad 4.

This is true. Also, if you look back at the update frequency of Macs in the first four years of the Intel era (2006-2009), it was not unusual to have two releases (sometimes even three) within the same calendar year. 2023 is the fourth year of the Apple Silicon era, and, while it has taken longer for some Macs to get spec bumps, I would not exclude a more rapid rollout of the M3 compared to the M2 (June 2022 to June 2023), and certainly the M1 (November 2020 to April 2022 (Mac Studio)).

Furthermore, the competition from Intel is a lot stronger than it was in 2020. With its successful transition to a 10nm node process, Intel has been able to make advances in both performance and efficiency. We should also not forget AMD, which has managed to become the default 'performance-per-dollar' option in the last seven years with its Ryzen line-up.

Finally, Mac sales are decreasing as part of a global crunch of the PC market. A significant chip upgrade (which is the M3 is expected to be, based on the 3 nm node process used by TSMC) can spur the last Intel Mac holdouts (whose laptops are largely between three-and-half and seven years old by the end of this year) to switch.

No M3 this year, folks.
Apple's playing it slow now – they're so ahead of the competition, there's no need to rush out an M3, especially with the potential embarrassment of chip shortages. We're probably getting more M2 products in the next 12 months (iPad Air, iMac M1, Vision Pro), then M3 will be announced in late 2024.

Apple probably doesn't want the newness of M3 to outshine the M2 they're putting in their $3000 headset, you know?

SW3029 said:

I've been saying since the release of the 15" M2 MBA that Apple will still launch a 15" M3 MBA this year. Apple will keep the M2 version on sale at the current price point (so people who already bought don't feel too ripped off), and Apple will price the 15" M3 MBA at a $200 premium.

As Bloomberg/9to5Mac points out M3 15-inch MBA has been found in developer logs:

• M3 13-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,1 and J513/J613)
• M3 15-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,2 and J515/J615)
• M3 13-inch MacBook Pro (codenamed Mac 15,3 and J504)
• M3 iMac (codenamed Mac 15,4, Mac 15,5, J433 and J434)
• M3 Pro and M3 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros (codenamed Mac 15,7, Mac 15,8, J514 and J516)
• Possible M3 Mac mini (codenamed Mac 15,12)

Now sure, maybe they just upgrade the 13" MBA in October to the M3, but that would be ultra confusing to the consumer ("Why does the 13" version have a more powerful chip?") and thus further hurt 15" MBA sales.

I'm betting the M3 15MBA is coming in October.

Click to expand...

Too bad we cannot really bet because I would bet against you.

If this is true I’m just going to keep my m2 - 14😂😂

SW3029 said:

I've been saying since the release of the 15" M2 MBA that Apple will still launch a 15" M3 MBA this year. Apple will keep the M2 version on sale at the current price point (so people who already bought don't feel too ripped off), and Apple will price the 15" M3 MBA at a $200 premium.

As Bloomberg/9to5Mac points out M3 15-inch MBA has been found in developer logs:

• M3 13-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,1 and J513/J613)
• M3 15-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,2 and J515/J615)
• M3 13-inch MacBook Pro (codenamed Mac 15,3 and J504)
• M3 iMac (codenamed Mac 15,4, Mac 15,5, J433 and J434)
• M3 Pro and M3 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros (codenamed Mac 15,7, Mac 15,8, J514 and J516)
• Possible M3 Mac mini (codenamed Mac 15,12)

Now sure, maybe they just upgrade the 13" MBA in October to the M3, but that would be ultra confusing to the consumer ("Why does the 13" version have a more powerful chip?") and thus further hurt 15" MBA sales.

I'm betting the M3 15MBA is coming in October.

Click to expand...

MBA is the low end of Apple laptops and that will not change with M3 chips, so expect minimal M3 performance improvements. And Mac laptop battery performances are already excellent, so efficiency improvements will not mean much either.

The only reason for Apple to push M3 to MBAs so quickly would be if M3 chips are really low cost compared to the superb M2 chips, such as lots of low end chips in the M3 yield that only work for MBAs - - which is very unlikely. Especially since M2 (which are far more than sufficient for MBA needs) probably have very cost-effective yields by now.

Adelphos33 said:

Will an M3 MacBook Air be significantly more powerful than an M2 MacBook Air? The M3 MacBook Air will likely be limited to the base M chip, right? Is the current base M2 limited in any way for the intended use (basically as an office computer)?

currently limitation is throttling under heavy load, m3 being 3nm should elevate to a decent degree, that and more battery efficient allowing apple to use less battery to achieve the same battery life.

Adelphos33 said:

Will an M3 MacBook Air be significantly more powerful than an M2 MacBook Air? The M3 MacBook Air will likely be limited to the base M chip, right? Is the current base M2 limited in any way for the intended use (basically as an office computer)?

Sorry but that is an open-ended question. Of course the current base M2 is limited. The MBA is the low end of Apple's laptops. Office computers do all kinds of things, but max out the RAM and have 2x your SSD needs and basically as an office computer should be fine; M3 also being Apple's low end is not likely to change much.

Work an M2 (or likely M3) MBA hard processing imagery or whatever and it will overheat and throttle. There are many reasons folks like me pay more to choose MBPs.

vanc said:

Possible, but highly unlikely. The M2 15" MBA was made available on June 15. Refreshing after merely 3 months? That would be a new record for Apple.

Mark Gurman has actually been saying that he expects the 13” MBA to be updated to M3 first and then the 15” model to be updated separately later with the models eventually getting on the same update timeline, but not for M3.

When I read the “and this proves it” on the title I thought I would see hard evidence…

SW3029 said:

I've been saying since the release of the 15" M2 MBA that Apple will still launch a 15" M3 MBA this year. Apple will keep the M2 version on sale at the current price point (so people who already bought don't feel too ripped off), and Apple will price the 15" M3 MBA at a $200 premium.

As Bloomberg/9to5Mac points out M3 15-inch MBA has been found in developer logs:

• M3 13-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,1 and J513/J613)
• M3 15-inch MacBook Air (codenamed Mac 15,2 and J515/J615)
• M3 13-inch MacBook Pro (codenamed Mac 15,3 and J504)
• M3 iMac (codenamed Mac 15,4, Mac 15,5, J433 and J434)
• M3 Pro and M3 Max 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros (codenamed Mac 15,7, Mac 15,8, J514 and J516)
• Possible M3 Mac mini (codenamed Mac 15,12)

Now sure, maybe they just upgrade the 13" MBA in October to the M3, but that would be ultra confusing to the consumer ("Why does the 13" version have a more powerful chip?") and thus further hurt 15" MBA sales.

I'm betting the M3 15MBA is coming in October.

Click to expand...

Based on recent history, I imagine the following timeline:

M3:
MBA 13: Early 2024
iMac / Mac Mini / 15” MBA: Mid 2024
MBP: Late 2024
Mac Pro: Mid 2025

I doubt the M3 chip will be ready to ship in 2023 with all the rumors of problems and low yields on the 3NM chipset.

I think we may need to wait for the M3 but I also think the M3 will be a huge hit and give Intel another run for their money.

SW3029 said:

There's actually precedent for Apple doing this. In March 2012 they came out with the iPad 3. In October 2012 they came out with the iPad 4.

1. That's an iPad.
2. That's 7 months. Not 3.
3. That was done because they were overhauling the entire lineup to Lightning connector at the same time, a once in a decade kind of transition.

If that's what you call "precedent" for what you're suggesting Apple will do...then I don't know what to tell you.

Apple wouldn't have released the 15" MBA when they did if they had any intention of refreshing it a mere 3 months later. Apple simply is not this aggressive with Mac updates no matter how much some people pretend they could be.

Allen_Wentz said:

Sorry but that is an open-ended question. Of course the current base M2 is limited. The MBA is the low end of Apple's laptops. Office computers do all kinds of things, but max out the RAM and have 2x your SSD needs and basically as an office computer should be fine; M3 also being Apple's low end is not likely to change much.

Work an M2 (or likely M3) MBA hard processing imagery or whatever and it will overheat and throttle. There are many reasons folks like me pay more to choose MBPs.

That’s not what I was asking. For some - the MBA is limited. For others - and I would argue for almost all of the MBA’s target audience - the M2 MacBook Air is overkill. In fact, the M1 MacBook Air is also overkill for these users. My question was - for those waiting for an M3 MacBook Air (and specifically a MacBook Air, not another computer), what performance boosts are you actually waiting for? Someone up thread said battery life, but going from 18 to 22 hours won’t impact most users, because most users need well under 18 hours already.

MacProFCP said:

Based on recent history, I imagine the following timeline:

M3:
MBA 13: Early 2024
iMac / Mac Mini / 15” MBA: Mid 2024
MBP: Late 2024
Mac Pro: Mid 2025

I doubt the M3 chip will be ready to ship in 2023 with all the rumors of problems and low yields on the 3NM chipset.

I think we may need to wait for the M3 but I also think the M3 will be a huge hit and give Intel another run for their money.

Click to expand...

I think the iMac will be the first M3 Mac, and it will likely be released in October/November this year. I would bet a good amount on this computer being released this year.

The question in my mind is the rest of the “M3 base” lineup - MacBook Air 13”, MacBook Pro 13”, MacBook Air 15”, along with the Mac Mini. Some of these computers will be released in 1H24. One or two could happen late 2023. I think the MacBook Air needs to be on the same chip cadence, so I could see MacBook Airs released next year given the volume required. I could see the case for Mac Mini either in October/November or in January.

Developer logs are not an accurate representation of release timelines. There's no way they would update the 15" so soon after launch, that makes no sense at all. Imagine how pissed people would be if they bought what's supposed to be a "new" MacBook that became outdated 3 months later.

Also, increasing the price by $200 doesn't make sense either. The price of the 15" MBA, once upgraded a bit, is already really close to the price of the 14" MBP. Add $200 to that and you'll have people buying the 14" MBP and then complaining about how heavy it is.