Arctic Could Be Sea Ice-Free in the Summer by the 2030s - Slashdot
source link: https://news.slashdot.org/story/23/06/09/234214/arctic-could-be-sea-ice-free-in-the-summer-by-the-2030s
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Arctic Could Be Sea Ice-Free in the Summer by the 2030s
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Arctic Could Be Sea Ice-Free in the Summer by the 2030s 17
Posted by BeauHD
on Saturday June 10, 2023 @06:00AM from the ahead-of-schedule dept.Previous assessments using models have estimated an ice-free summer under high and intermediate emissions scenarios by 2050. But researchers noticed differences between what climate models predicted about what would happen to sea ice and what they've actually seen through observations, according to Bob Weber of the Canadian Press. "The models, on average, underestimate sea ice decline compared with observations," says Nathan Gillett, an environment and climate change Canada scientist, to Weber.
Now, in a new study published in Nature Communications, Notz, Gillett and their colleagues tweaked these models to more closely fit satellite data collected over the past 40 years. Using these modified models, the researchers projected ice changes under different possible levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Their paper suggests that regardless of emissions scenario, "we may experience an unprecedented ice-free Arctic climate in the next decade or two." Under a high emissions scenario, the Arctic could see a sustained loss of sea ice from August until as late as October before the 2080s, lead author Seung-Ki Min, a climate scientist at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea, tells CNN's Rachel Ramirez.
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