The war in Ukraine has fallen from the headlines, and most analysts think the fighting will persist well into 2023, if not longer.

But what if the war ends sooner? What if Ukrainian forces repel the Russian invaders and put an end to the fighting? That would be a major upside surprise for financial markets—and it might not be as fanciful as it once seemed.

Ukrainian forces have gone on the offensive in at least two different places, and they seem to be routing Russian units that are even weaker than six months of botched operations would suggest. Near Kharkiv, in the northeast, Ukrainian troops have retaken more than 2,500 square kilometers of terrain, according to the Institute for the Study of War. That's an area nearly as large as Rhode Island. Ukraine has seized the key logistical hubs of Kupyansk and Izyum and may keep going. These gains massively disrupt Russian supply lines in the northeast and will force a disorganized Russian force to withdraw and reset.

“Ukrainian forces broke through very fast," military analyst Michael Kofman of CNA said on a Sept. 10 Twitter podcast. "It's a very remarkable offensive. It is a collapse of an entire pocket that forced the retreat of the Russian military from the sector. It puts Russian forces on the defensive for the foreseeable future."

There’s another offensive near Kherson, in the southeast, where Russia has massed forces in anticipation of a move Ukraine has been telegraphing for weeks. Russian resistance may be stronger there, yet Ukraine may still have trapped several thousand Russian troops on the west side of a river they can’t retreat across, because of Ukrainian strikes on bridges and ferries. Ukraine ultimately aims to retake Kherson, which is a regional capital and crucial foothold for Russia in its effort to control Ukraine’s Black Sea access.

The momentum shift could have big implications

These advances don’t mean Russia will be pulling out of Ukraine any time soon. Russia still has tens of thousands of troops dug in in eastern Ukraine, and its bloodthirsty leader, Vladimir Putin, won’t easily give up his misbegotten claim on his neighbor. The Russians can still rain artillery down on Ukrainian cities and reach just about anywhere in the country with long-range missiles.