Annual COVID vaccines, much like annual flu shots, will likely be reality in the near future, White House officials declared this week—further bolstering the case that the acute phase of the pandemic, at least, has drawn to a close.

“In the absence of a dramatically different variant, we likely are moving towards a path with a vaccination cadence similar to that of the annual influenza vaccine,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and physician to the president, said at a news conference heralding the approval and distribution of new Omicron boosters.

Ideally, updates to the COVID-19 shot will be made each year to match circulating strains, as is done with the flu vaccine, he added.

But some experts disagree with Fauci’s prediction, warning that typical COVID vaccine immunity only lasts four to six months—and that the virus is still evolving.

“I don’t see any evidence for how an annual COVID shot will provide durable protection … without better vaccines,” Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said this week via tweet.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1567206174910717952

“To give a false impression of year-long protection ([against] severe disease and death) with the data in hand is not acceptable,” he later added.

Even the flu vaccine doesn’t offer year-long protection, Dr. Lee Altenberg, a theoretical biologist and professor at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, pointed out via tweet, citing a 2019 article from Clinical Infectious Diseases that says the flu shot’s protection lasts only 90 to 160 days at most.

Such a length of protection may generally work with a seasonal virus like the flu. But COVID isn’t seasonal, Altenberg and other experts say, with surges primarily driven by new variants of concern.

“This ‘annual COVID shot’ is more urgency-of-normal denial of the pandemic's reality—an attempt to pretend it is like the flu—to gaslight people [that] it's the flu,” Altenberg tweeted.