Bloomberg's ETF Analyst Believes BlackRock Has 50% Chance of Obtaining Spot Bitc...

Bloomberg's ETF Analyst Believes BlackRock Has 50% Chance of Obtaining Spot Bitcoin ETF Approved

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas thinks that the investment management firm BlackRock has a 50% probability of having its spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approved. He assumes the firm will get a green light for its Bitcoin ETF because Grayscale has a higher chance of winning its battle against the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior litigation analyst Elliot Stein observed and pegged the chances of Grayscale winning against the SEC at 70%, following which Eric predicted the fate of the BlackRock ETFs.

Eric gave his reasoning for this decision as follows,

“Another reason we give spot bitcoin ETF approval a 50% chance is our senior legal analyst @NYCStein gives Grayscale a 70% chance of winning the case against SEC, who could approve BlackRock’s ETF as a way to save face using trusted ‘adult’ TradFi cos & stick it to Grayscale via @JSeyff.”

Thus, he believes that SEC would want to save face amidst this battle with Grayscale and would form a positive outlook for BalcRock’s ETF.

The Grayscale Battle With SEC

The Grayscale and SEC battle began with the former filing an appeal against the latter for rejecting its application in June 2022. Thus, since last year, back-and-forth legal proceedings and filings are occurring with an oral testimony heard on March 7 by three United States federal appellate court judges.

Elliot Z Stein, the litigation analyst, thus believes that Grayscale has a 70% chance of winning the lawsuit against the SEC over a bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a Bitcoin ETF. The oral arguments tipped the scales in Grayscale’s direction, as all three judges appeared to side with the company, depending on their questioning.

Thus, this battle may help BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application as SEC may look to soften the blow of the battle loss. However, a conclusion regarding the matter may come by August.

Bitcoin ETF Applications: A Central Point Recently

Currently, the applications for Bitcoin ETFs have been a focal point for the industry. Along with the $10 trillion asset management firm BlackRock, other companies waiting for SEC’s approval include Wisdom Tree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie.

With the approval of applications from firms similar to JPMorgan, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, who’d also offer similar services, the digital asset market firms would gain exposure to a $27 trillion assets under management.

GBTC’s Performance In the Past Period

Despite the awaiting Grayscale results, GBTC has risen over 134% in 2023 and reached $19.47. According to Google Finance, this point marks its highest price since May 13, 2022.

Further, according to the YCharts data, the GBTC’s share price discount in comparison to its overall net value declined to 31% on June 26, which is the lowest level recorded since September 12, 2022. A lower trust discount rate signals a positive investor sentiment toward the product.

However, since the overall crypto market is down, GBTC suffers the same fate and is down over 65% from an all-time high price of $56.70.

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