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source link: https://nitter.it/DSBatten?t=l_D0JthgszJb1uqdZ6CBEw&s=09
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Daniel Batten (@DSBatten)
While not investment advice, this is my opinion as a fund manager on the ESG case for Bitcoin after 2 months due diligence.
If you’re a manager of fund where #bitcoin is an investment candidate: failure to consider #BTC in the mix is gross negligence to your ESG obligations
Global cryptomarket cap today is $1.06 Trillion Current market cap of #Bitcoin is $504.02B
So assuming users hold similarly sized stacks across all crypto-assets, we currently have around
198.5 Million Bitcoin users
The positive environmental usecases of Bitcoin mining keep growing
This greenhouse, and others like it, were using natural gas to heat greenhouses
They are now using #Bitcoin miner heat (powered by rooftop solar)
The operation is carbon negative
Reason: Bitcoin mining can use off-grid renewable energy sources, whereas traditional industries are tied to a predominantly coal-based global grid
New research just in 📙
👇 batcoinz.com/improving-our-e…
* Our analysis suggests that the CBECI number almost all media outlets and commentators use for Bitcoin's energy consumption is overstated by at least 23.7%, possible more
This has also led to emissions overestimation
I've been waiting 3 months to make this post
The Cambridge (CCAF) data on Bitcoin has these issues
1. energy consumption (20.6% overstated) 2. emission intensity (69.4% overstated) 3. sustainable energy mix (39.9% understated) 4. emissions (106% overstated)
Key reasons: * miner-map 17 months out of date (puts Kazakhstan at 13% of hashrate, whereas its currently <1%. Other issues) * mining dataset is non-representative and non-extensive (excludes the 52% of the network, who use 64.7% sustainable energy sources) * offgrid mining not measured (28% of network, who our analysis shows use 78% sustainable-energy sources)
Conclusion: We shouldn't be using the CCAF models of the Bitcoin Network until their model limitations are fixed. To their credit, they are aware of the limitations, and have always been transparent about them on their website.
I've been working with Luxor, Blockware and over 30 miners over the last few months to build an up-to-date model based on the Network's current miner-mix, mining map and energy sources
That work is now done.
If you want to dive into the weeds, you can find all the data, calcs, methodologies and analysis here
1. Emissions and emissions intensity batcoinz.com/accurately-dyna…
here 2. Energy Consumption batcoinz.com/improving-our-e…
and here 3. Sustainable energy mix Batcoinz.com/BEEST
These 3 articles together contains the source data for the pretty charts that @woonomic and I got together to make recently when he was over in NZ.
Otherwise, you can just look at the nice pretty charts.
First, why did emissions rise in 20-21?
1. As price rose, older (less energy efficient) machines became profitable. That caused higher scope-2 emissions/TH
2. As miners chased the market, taking time to hunt out the cheapest (renewable/low emission) energy got de-prioritized
4/6
What happened next was of course the liquidation wave. Miners who bought ASICS at a high price returned relatively little Bitcoin for their cost of capital.
Meanwhile, the poor electricity contracts they entered into while chasing the market hurt their profitability.
5/6
So the root cause of rising emissions was lack of mathematical modelling in their OPEX (electricity cost) vs revenue.
While humans do forget fiscal foolishness (such as Dotcom, GFC, the current "everything bubble"), it takes longer than 4 years to forget
For this reason, I see a 20% max emissions spike, a 2x ASICS price increase in the next 6-month #Bitcoin price bullrun
This matters, because when NGU, critics will restart non-data driven predictions of permanent, exponential emission rises
Be ready with the data to debunk them
Footnote:
The other important factor is the relative difference in machine efficiency is decreasing, which means that the emissions impact of bringing an older machine back onto the network is less significant.
* chart below shows how using a 3-year old machine today makes less difference to network efficiency compared to using a 3 year old machine in 2020
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