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 1 year ago
source link: https://nitter.it/DSBatten?t=l_D0JthgszJb1uqdZ6CBEw&s=09
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Daniel Batten (@DSBatten)

While not investment advice, this is my opinion as a fund manager on the ESG case for Bitcoin after 2 months due diligence.

If you’re a manager of fund where #bitcoin is an investment candidate: failure to consider #BTC in the mix is gross negligence to your ESG obligations

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If you think mainstream media write more negative environmental articles on Bitcoin than positives, that's no longer true

In the first 125 days of 2023, positive environmental write-ups outnumbered negative articles 4:1

Snapshot below

bWVkaWEvRnl1RnEwbGFBQUFtQkt6LmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

If you think crypto is dead under the current US regulatory FUD, here's some perspective.

Here's a page out of the 2023 UBS report on family offices (minimum bar is $50m-$100m of investable assets).

35% plan to increase digital asset exposure, while 5% plan to decrease.

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Global cryptomarket cap today is $1.06 Trillion Current market cap of #Bitcoin is $504.02B

So assuming users hold similarly sized stacks across all crypto-assets, we currently have around

198.5 Million Bitcoin users

nitter.it/fgthiel/status/1…

The number of people using crypto globally have increased by nearly 37% Y/Y according to this chart #bitcoin #crypto
bWVkaWEvRnlpQkc3RWFjQU1sVTlPLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

The positive environmental usecases of Bitcoin mining keep growing

This greenhouse, and others like it, were using natural gas to heat greenhouses

They are now using #Bitcoin miner heat (powered by rooftop solar)

The operation is carbon negative

This farm in the Netherlands is recycling the warmth of #bitcoin mining to grow flowers and save on energy costs ↓

Unlike tree planting projects, for landfill gas powergen projects, every minute precise measuring technology can tell you how much carbon you're reducing

When a landfill can't sell that power to the grid, the best use is Bitcoin mining

probably nothing

bWVkaWEvRnlpOEd2NWFNQUE3TXd6LmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

The graphic below says

"Bitcoin mining has become the only major global industry NOT predominantly powered by coal"

bWVkaWEvRnlZcFV4dmFrQUE2V1h1LnBuZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

Reason: Bitcoin mining can use off-grid renewable energy sources, whereas traditional industries are tied to a predominantly coal-based global grid

source: batcoinz.com/bitcoin-by-ener… batcoinz.com/BEEST

New research just in 📙

👇 batcoinz.com/improving-our-e…

* Our analysis suggests that the CBECI number almost all media outlets and commentators use for Bitcoin's energy consumption is overstated by at least 23.7%, possible more

This has also led to emissions overestimation

23.7% is the average overestimate this year 20.6% is the current at-the-minute overestimate

I've been waiting 3 months to make this post

The Cambridge (CCAF) data on Bitcoin has these issues

1. energy consumption (20.6% overstated) 2. emission intensity (69.4% overstated) 3. sustainable energy mix (39.9% understated) 4. emissions (106% overstated)

Key reasons: * miner-map 17 months out of date (puts Kazakhstan at 13% of hashrate, whereas its currently <1%. Other issues) * mining dataset is non-representative and non-extensive (excludes the 52% of the network, who use 64.7% sustainable energy sources) * offgrid mining not measured (28% of network, who our analysis shows use 78% sustainable-energy sources)

Conclusion: We shouldn't be using the CCAF models of the Bitcoin Network until their model limitations are fixed. To their credit, they are aware of the limitations, and have always been transparent about them on their website.

I've been working with Luxor, Blockware and over 30 miners over the last few months to build an up-to-date model based on the Network's current miner-mix, mining map and energy sources

That work is now done.

If you want to dive into the weeds, you can find all the data, calcs, methodologies and analysis here

1. Emissions and emissions intensity batcoinz.com/accurately-dyna…

here 2. Energy Consumption batcoinz.com/improving-our-e…

and here 3. Sustainable energy mix Batcoinz.com/BEEST

These 3 articles together contains the source data for the pretty charts that @woonomic and I got together to make recently when he was over in NZ.

Otherwise, you can just look at the nice pretty charts.

bWVkaWEvRnlLckJCM2FrQUFOb0kyLnBuZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw
1,007

1/6

Last bullrun, Bitcoin (scope2) emissions rose 72% from Nov20-May21 before falling just as sharply

Will we see a similarly large short-term spike in emissions during the next bullrun ?

Unlikely

Here's why

🧵

bWVkaWEvRnlKUUVDaWFFQUFqaFRfLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

First, why did emissions rise in 20-21?

1. As price rose, older (less energy efficient) machines became profitable. That caused higher scope-2 emissions/TH

2. As miners chased the market, taking time to hunt out the cheapest (renewable/low emission) energy got de-prioritized

3/6

Careful expense-control also went out the window from Nov20-May21 when it came to buying cost-effective mining rigs.

The cost of ASICS (mining rigs) went up an astonishing 4.7x in just 6 months.

bWVkaWEvRnlKUjlwN2FrQUFaVjR2LmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

4/6

What happened next was of course the liquidation wave. Miners who bought ASICS at a high price returned relatively little Bitcoin for their cost of capital.

Meanwhile, the poor electricity contracts they entered into while chasing the market hurt their profitability.

5/6

So the root cause of rising emissions was lack of mathematical modelling in their OPEX (electricity cost) vs revenue.

While humans do forget fiscal foolishness (such as Dotcom, GFC, the current "everything bubble"), it takes longer than 4 years to forget

For this reason, I see a 20% max emissions spike, a 2x ASICS price increase in the next 6-month #Bitcoin price bullrun

This matters, because when NGU, critics will restart non-data driven predictions of permanent, exponential emission rises

Be ready with the data to debunk them

Footnote:

The other important factor is the relative difference in machine efficiency is decreasing, which means that the emissions impact of bringing an older machine back onto the network is less significant.

* chart below shows how using a 3-year old machine today makes less difference to network efficiency compared to using a 3 year old machine in 2020

bWVkaWEvRnlKWTRZNGFRQUF4VmpqLmpwZz9uYW1lPXNtYWxsJmZvcm1hdD13ZWJw

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