EVs - expert predictions and overcoming the challenges

Tuesday, 06 June 2023 11:45

EVs - expert predictions and overcoming the challenges

GUEST EVENT: Hear expert speakers at the upcoming clean energy event Energy Next on the 18th to 19th of July 2023 at the ICC Sydney, providing expert predictions and guidance on overcoming challenges.

With the introduction of the Federal Government's National EV Strategy, which includes the introduction of the Fuel Efficiency Standard and increased infrastructure spending, EVs and the growth of the market are very much in the spotlight.

Taking place on the 18th-19th of July at the ICC Sydney, the upcoming clean energy event, Energy Next, has a portion of its education agenda focused on the subject of EVs.

The increased attention and significant investment from the government (with even more expected over the next four years), means it’s an exciting time for electric vehicles in Australia. The NSW Government has set a goal of at least 50% of all new car sales to be EVs by 2030-31, promising almost half a billion in tax cuts and incentives to get us there.

At present, EVs only account for 3.8% of all new car sales, but this has more than tripled in the first four months of 2023. When a panel of clean energy experts, who are speaking at Energy Next, were asked about when EVs would hit 25% of new energy car sales, most predicted it would be between the late 2020s and 2030.

Amelia McVeigh of ACA Research said, “The ACA Research New Vehicle Sales forecast predicts new vehicle sales out to 2027. Based on the most recent edition (Dec ’22), EVs will account for 16% of new vehicles sold by 2027 and we would likely then be hitting 25% adoption in either 2028 or 2029.”

Consumer demand is certainly there, with ACA’s Automotive Tracking Research showing that for those in the market for a new vehicle in the next 12 months, over one-fifth (22%) are considering an EV.

But there are still a lot of challenges to the EV market that may hinder the predicted penetration: Prohibitively high costs of vehicles, range anxiety and lack of charging infrastructure are still making the ‘barriers to entry’ too high for some new vehicle purchasers.

But with greater consumer pressure for reasonably priced EVs and better-charging infrastructure, along with local governments implementing plans and policies to fast-track their adoption, the race is on to hit the 25% of new energy sales.

Rosemary Tan, Managing Director of i-Charge Solutions said, “In addition to having a fuel-efficiency standard, the Government should adopt international EV charging standards such as OCPP and OCPI for chargers and charging station management systems. That’s how we build public trust – a puzzle of promoting EV adoption that cannot be missed – not just a number target. What will make people adopt EVs is that it is easy. What makes it easy is 1. financial incentives, 2. good functionality from a consumer perspective and 3. good management from the loading perspective.”

Affordable EVs seem to be a key barrier for the Australian car-buying public. Karit executive director Brett Milne said, “To speed up this transition Australia needs to ban the import of ICE vehicles as early as possible through emissions standards or other means and put in place incentives that equalise the cost of an EV with a similar standard ICE car. For example, an ICE Hyundai Kona is available in a price range of $30K-$47K, whereas the price range for an equivalent electric Kona is $57K-$67K. Consumers should be able to shift from their current standard of ICE vehicle to a similar standard of EV with no price/quality penalty.”

And making Australia more appealing to EV car manufacturers as an import market is also important with Amelia McVeigh of Fifth Quadrant/ACA research saying, “Reducing EV costs is also dependent on manufacturers bringing these cheaper models into the Australian market. The Federal Government’s EV strategy focuses on this, looking to create an environment where manufacturers treat Australia as a priority. Implementing the Fuel Efficiency Standard and sending a clear signal to the industry is therefore the most critical step right now to speed up adoption in the years ahead.”

Charging infrastructure was another challenge identified by the Energy Next experts which also impacts consumers‘ range anxiety, with Cossill & Webley consulting engineers principal - energy transformative services Jey Shivakumar saying one solution would be to “increase the incentives for private operators/petrol stations to convert to install more EV charging infrastructure.” And Energy Lab CEO Megan Fisher saying “we need a more coordinated approach to the rollout of infrastructure and EV charging in general.”

SMA Australia business development manager Andros Cadavid said, “When it comes to speeding up adoption, in the short term, measures such as tax deductions for EVs and deployment of fast charging stations would be important. In the longer term and for widespread adoption of EVs, ultimately improvement of power transmission (poles and wires) will be necessary to ensure the power network can cope with large numbers of EV charging stations and a critical number of vehicles charging simultaneously.”

Taking place at the ICC on July 18th-19th, Energy Next, will host talks on the topic of EVs including a presentation about the state of consumer EV sentiment, where the market is now and the future, an energy democracy for EV owners with home solar and a panel discussion on the EV charging infrastructure.

The full agenda can be seen here.

Registration for Energy Next is completely free. People just need to register at this link.

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