This banking crisis isn’t 2008. That doesn’t make it a good thing
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This banking crisis isn’t 2008. That doesn’t make it a good thing: Morning Brief
This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe
Wednesday, March 29, 2023
Today's newsletter is by Myles Udland, Head of News at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @MylesUdland and on LinkedIn. Read this and more market news on the go with the .
A daily refrain from investors and financial commentators has been to remind viewers, listeners, readers, and anyone else within earshot that this banking crisis is not 2008.
"Similarities with the lead-up to the global financial crisis are becoming more apparent each week, but we believe key differences make a reprise unlikely," wrote Tamara Basic Vasiljev, senior economist at Oxford Economics, in a note to clients on Tuesday.
"More banking sector upheaval and consolidation is possible, but we think broader economic damage is likely to be contained," Vasiljev added.
And indeed, current angst over FDIC insurance limits, business model risks among regional banks, and another iteration of fears about the commercial real estate market all remain a safe distance from the existential questions the 2008 crisis surfaced at its nadir.
As my former editor Sam Ro used to say, the 2008 crisis didn't peak until people were openly doubting the foundations of capitalism.
But the current bank crisis is no joke, either.
Three U.S. banks have failed this month. Over $100 billion in deposits have flowed out of small banks.
By assets, this year's failures are exceeded only by those seen in 2008, when 25 banks holding north of $370 billion in assets went under. The scale of this crisis' failures ought not to be dismissed.
Moreover, the policy outlook remains fractured.
The Federal Reserve raised rates again last week, bringing rates to their highest levels since October 2007.
And while the central bank notably pared back its expectations for more rate hikes this year, Fed officials expect another 0.25% rate hike will be needed to slow inflation.
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