US Approves California Plan Requiring Half of Heavy Duty Trucks Be EV By 2035 -...
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US Approves California Plan Requiring Half of Heavy Duty Trucks Be EV By 2035
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The California Air Resources Board (CARB) had sought waivers from the Clean Air Act to set heavy-duty vehicle and engine emission standards. California has been joined by Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Washington and Vermont in adopting the rules. CARB has noted heavy-duty vehicles greater than 14,000 pounds comprised 3% of vehicles on California roads, but account for more than 50% of nitrogen oxides and fine particle diesel pollution.
The EPA said it is not yet approving California's request to set new regulations on pollutant exhaust emission standards for nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter for 2024 and future medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles. Separately, California in August moved to require all new light-duty cars and trucks sold in the state by 2035 to be either electric or plug-in electric hybrids. California needs an EPA waiver for that regulation.
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Trucking companies will just buy and license their fleet out of state. the only thing he is playing hardball with is the truck dealers in California.-
California can regulate out-of-state trucks that come into the state.
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One way they could limit this would be to construct numerous transfer ports near the borders of the state. Out-of-state trucks would be required to either be EV or deliver their load to a transfer port. From there an EV truck could travel the rest of the way into the state.
This would either encourage trucking companies to switch to EV trucks or put many goods into standard shipping containers which could be easily transferred to EV trucks. Any trucking company that had to manually unload their cargo so i
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No they cannot. That is a violation of the interstate commerce clause.
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The Interstate Commerce Clause gives the Federal government the right to regulate interstate commerce. It does not prohibit the states from also regulating it, provided the commerce has a nexus in the state's scope of authority, and the regulations do not conflict with federal regulations.
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Unlikely, since electric trucks are cheaper to operate and maintain.
By 2035, most new trucks will be electric. California's mandate may speed that up a little, but it will happen regardless.
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Long distance lorries only have a service life of 5 years or so. The switch to electric is going to happen very swiftly, the same way it is happening with buses right now.
Good luck if you are a lorry manufacturer and you do not have a plan to transition 100% of production to electric by 2030. China won't wait for you, and Chinese companies will eagerly capture the market. Just like with buses.
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So an average of 146 miles/day? At 50 mph you could cover that distance in 3 hours. That seems low for a long-distance truck. Google suggests that it's more common for long-distance trucks to go more like 500 mi/day, which would go through 800,000 mi in about 4.5 years. There's some wiggle room because a truck won't be active every single day, but they aren't going to be idle for two-thirds of the year.
I guess by "obviously bullshit" and "ignorant of real life", you were referring more to yourself than to t
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No, no they aren't gweilo.
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Most big trucking companies already do that.
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Registering things out of state for use mostly or entirely within it has been tried before, and laws tend to be written with closing such loopholes in mind.
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Maybe it'll work out. But my semi-professional opinion is that it won't, in a very specific way:
The electric stuff will be sold in the required numbers, possibly with heavy taxpayer subsidies, but the real work that trucks/cars/etc do will be borne by the ever-shrinking pool of grandfathered gasoline and diesel vehicles.
The costs to operate these things will rise as time goes on. And that will make the failure of the policy along the economic dimension easier to obfuscate.
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Actually, local work will easily shift to EVs, and fleets will see long term savings too. Then regional will shift. Then national.
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That would require a breakthrough in battery technology (not cost, but energy density and charging speed) that just isn't in the foreseeable future.
Batteries can be free, but if they take hours to recharge, don't last very long between charges, and weigh 10x more than an equivalent gas tank, there are just things they can't do.
And speaking of weighing 10x more...any takers on when parking garages loaded down with 4 ton EVs (as opposed to 1.5 to 2 ton regular SUVs) will start collapsing en masse? Bridges? Ov
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You're right! If vehicles that weigh more take off among consumers then parking garages, bridges and overpasses will start collapsing everywhere! We must stop this atrocity! Quickly, to the time machine and back twenty years so we can stop people from buying SUVs and pickups when all they need is a sedan! Oh, you're worried about EVs that weigh 5 to 10% more... Um, sure.
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Note that TheMiddleRoad specified "local work". Consider that the USPS is heading towards most of their fleet being EV.
Let's address your concerns, with respect to "local work" trucks.
Take hours to recharge: Tesla can charge 200 miles in 15 minutes. [tesla.com] False.
Don't last very long between charges: 200-300+ miles, the same as many gasoline cars. With a local delivery truck, this should be more than enough. Consider that most USPS average only 24 miles/day. Some googling for fedex/ups/amazon says about 35-45 miles/day. My brother's work is basically to work site and back, so would max out at around 100 miles, as they don't want to pay the techs for driving too far.
Weigh 10 times as much as gas tank: So what? Consider the whole system: the electric motors weigh much less than a equally powerful engine, so are gasoline vehicles no-go because their engines weigh more? Effective range, cost per mile, those are the relevant statistics.
Total vehicle weight: Again, research [researchgate.net] shows that EVs are only about 25% heavier, not 100-150%.Bridges and overpasses are built to take that variation.
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Oh, and forgot to mention:
Most local delivery vehicles spend most of the night parked. They might leave early, but be parked by early afternoon. So fast charging is not a requirement, so long as they can get the necessary miles back by the next shift.-
plus they could do V2G and make money while parked if they plan it right
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Worth noting that bridges and overpasses are basically never limited by the tare weight of the vehicle but rather weight of the payload. Even if the truck literally was twice as heavy it would be irrelevant.
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Sorry your criticisms of EV are misplaced in this line of faulty reasoning. Bridges and overpasses aren't going to collapse from heavier EVs. No electric car or light truck is going to come close to the legal axle limit that is conservatively well under the design limits of lbs per square foot.
As for commercial vehicles, there are strict gross vehicle weight limits on the roads. And to be efficient and economical, most trucks on the road are loaded to the legal maximum weight as much of the time as they
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Where are you getting the electricity? The only way this works is with a huge nuclear energy buildout. Good luck getting California on board with that.
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Converting 50% of long-haul trucking to electricity will increase electricity consumption by less than 2%.
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You could probably offset that 2% and more by better insulating Californian homes.
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Citation please. From EAI data itâ(TM)s closer to 10%.
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Hot air, clearly.
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But those poor children doing the Lithium strip mining. Think of the children guys
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There is a slight wrinkle on all this - not enough power to make this feasible. Nuclear power is being phased out. Natural gas costs are highest in the nation. Solar is no where near to be able to provide enough capacity for future demand. The state is run by populists pushing feel-good regulations detached from the reality.
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There's YouTube videos of California politicians talking big about nuclear power plants and natural gas fueled heavy vehicles. This had to be mid-1970s because after Three Mile Island melted down in 1979 the mood shifted quickly on nuclear power. As Mark Twain points out we don't see history repeat but it does rhyme.
California has been forced to bail out their nuclear power plants, and make plans for more, because if they didn't then they'd face record high energy prices and/or new highs in CO2 emissions.
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The mood on investment in nuclear changed prior to 1979, with most putting it around 1977. That was a huge part of the problem - investment. Apart from here and there, the US regulatory environment has been rather positive towards nuclear power, especially after 2000 with increased government subsidy. However, investment has still been muted, initially due to shale gas, now renewables.
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Damn. If only they could change that before 2035...
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I will reconsider after they build the high speed rail.
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You should put your question into a search engine and research instead of guessing. Most charging will be done late night/early morning when the grid is quieter and eventually V2G/V2H will gain traction to assist the grid at peak (school buses are already experimenting with this and making money while parked). Home solar installation with batteries are increasing all the time taking more load off the grid. The power generation for the grid is increasing in size all the time
The grid in 10 years time will be-
PG&E can barely (some would say can't at all) maintain the grid they have now.
How are they going to manage this larger grid you assume will just happen and how are they going to build it anyway? With what money? Do you know how many of those huge fires in California were/are caused by PG&E line problems?
Home solar is outside the reach of most people. I just had a huge and complex solar install. Each battery is about 10k. Each panel is about $400. Then you need inverters. Then you need control
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Won't someone think of the nuclear children!!!
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approving California's plans to require a rising number of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks
So did Elon Musk write this bill? Because it seems like it's making it mandatory for half of California to buy a Cybertruck or Tesla Semi...
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There are other electric semi trucks. Some are even made in California. Tesla is far from the only game in town.
Um... This is about heavy-duty trucks. Elmo's hideous low-poly monstrosity doesn't qualify. Not that you could get one even if you wanted to.
Oh, and there are a bunch of other electric truck options on the market that customers can actually get.
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Um, that'd be the "Tesla Semi" part of the ten words you quoted.
(admittedly it was after your trigger word, but still...)
Tesla Semi is already in use, eg. by Pepsi.
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
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"Low-poly monstrosity" very obviously refers to the Cybertruck, which looks like it escaped from the Hard Driving arcade game.
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I had something similar as a kid in my matchbox car collection.
Vroom vroom, lasers blast, missiles fire, pew pew pew, smash!
Oh to be 6 again.
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I can hear the California legislators now: Elon! COME BACK! We Need Your TAX PAYMENTS!
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Either that or he's a visionary who can see the future coming and make products to match.
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Like Indiana's Bill 246 of 1897*, watching the results of California's attempts to implement the legislation will be interesting.
*This legislation declared the value of pi to be 3.-
What? Pi isn't 3?
I was public school educated.
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Measured how? By vehicle numbers? Vehicle numbers in each weight class? Total GVWR? Because if you pick the correct metric, converting local delivery trucks to Rivan vans (as Amazon is doing) might get them there.
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Google says the weight of UPS delivery vans is 16 to 24k lbs, and electric ones are bound to be a bit heavier, so that sounds like they would exceed the 14k lb threshold mentioned in the summary.
They also stop and go constantly, which makes me wonder if their emissions might be up on par with heavier trucks for construction etc.
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You can do local delivery with EVs, but I don't think you can do long haul with lots of cargo due to battery capacity limitation.
Because of that, I suspect there will be less deliveries to California by road and few shipping companies that would do it would run specialty trucks with a diesel generator in a trailer charging while driving.
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Trick is, what's the ratio of local delivery vs long haul? Plus, lots of long haul trucks obtained and used outside of California.
So, odds are that the long haul trucks end up being unaffected(registered and purchased elsewhere), and it's mainly the intrastate trucks that need to meet the 50% - of which a huge portion would be local, and thus fine with EV.
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If you set the cutoff at 500 miles (the maximum range of a Tesla Semi), it is 63% short-haul to 37% long-haul [truckpartsandservice.com]. Moving 50% of all new trucks to electric, then, should be easily within reach.
Only 9.6% of commercial trucks nationwide are licensed in California, serving 11.8% of the population. Unless your trucks are primarily driving in California, you'd be stupid to pay the exorbitant vehicle licensing fees. I rather suspect that with the exception of the owner-operator rigs owned by California residents,
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Mod up. Yes Energy Density is what these brainless politicians/committees need to understand. Hauling heavy dirt/rock/steel/sand/lumber/liquids/bricks/tiles will NOT be possible, in a practical sense. And I would not like an auxiliary generator running in the back whilst carrying hay bales or flammable liquids. Secondly the reliability of truck sized battery packs are unproven, given amperage wear and tear is not linear. This of batteries catching file on a Jet plane when introduced, or cables loosing thei
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You're joking, right? The Tesla Semi, in its longest-range configuration, has a 500-mile range with a total combined vehicle weight (tandem) of 82,000 pounds. That is basically enough for any load that can be carried legally by truck, assuming you ignore the loss in cargo capacity resulting from the heavier cab contributing more to the total maximum weight.
Trucks are not jet aircraft. Tesla has been putting cars on the road for a long, long time, and apart from the higher maximum amperage draw (which is
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I just realized that was probably intended to be in the context of long-haul trucking. In that limited context, you're right.
That said, the goal is only 50% of trucks over 14,000 pounds, and way fewer than half of all class 4 to class 8 trucks are involved in long-haul trucking beyond 500 miles (about 37% as a percentage of routes). And since some of those are presumably owned by big companies with multi-state presence, the percentage of trucks registered in California used for long-haul trucking is proba
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Yes, I imagine you wouldn't want a nasty, dangerous, flammable ICE engine in your truck... Wait? What?
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Diesel truck engines (in front) are very reliable and do not catch fire easily, and if they do, noticed by the driver. Refrigerated containers are always short lead affairs. There are a few cars with batteries in the trunk, that are known to catch fire.Thick heavy duty high amperage cables , and oxidized connectors are the weakness. Electricians are scared of high amperage DC cables. I can also say battery operated vehicles that have lots of hills and climbing, never get the rated fuel/distance range procla
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That's quite the imagination you've got there.
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You can do it, you just need big enough batteries. If you want to match a truck with a 300 gallon tank that can go about 1,800 miles on a fill up, you need around 9 tons of lithium batteries (costing around $360K). That's a lot of weight, but not unthinkable. To take the longest point to point route in the country without needing to stop to charge at all you would need about 17.5 tons of batteries. Even that could be doable, although you would be seriously eating into the amount of cargo you could haul. Whe
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Considering that a legal maximum is about 40 tons, is having 9 tons of batteries reasonable? Also, what about charge time for such battery pack? Also, what do you think having 360K replacement cost every 10 years would do to shipping?
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Early BEV delivery trucks including "heavy" trucks of the early 1900s era were popular for short haul fleets which recharged off-hours.
If recharge speed isan issue, just buy more tractors. Full torque at zero RPM is nice too especially for urban use. Seaport container transfer will be popular.
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Yep, here is my favorite [wikimedia.org], 5 ton, hub motors, 4WS, 4WD, regen. On routes bringing stuff down off the top of a mountain they could charge themselves from regen on the downhill. They were also equipped and sold as series hybrids.
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If you're not familiar with the industry don't post as it makes you look stupid no matter what if any side you take.
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All State, County, and City vehicles in California should be 100% EV before imposing such draconian (and unattainable) restrictions of business and residents. The Government should lead by example. Newsom has failed on this point.
Police vehicles, trash trucks, ambulances, fire trucks, politicians vehicles, etc should all be done first.-
+1 Insightful...if I had mod points
If a government is trying to move it's society in a different direction, EV in this case, set the example for all to follow and "eat your own dog food" (convert to an all EV fleet).
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If you waited for the government (those infamously agile and fast developing organisations) to do anything you'd still be reading this message via telegram lit by a wax candle.
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They are doing precisely that. There's no magic carveout for government agencies and they'll be buying EVs just like everyone else. If you're waiting for a government example to follow for development and takeup of new technology we'd all be in the fucking dark ages.
Man with little forethought thinks everyone is special and that EVs would be a huge "draconian and unattainable" restriction. News at 11. Your talking points are tired, or at least you will be, but you haven't even made them yet. You've only ach
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You missed the "where feasible" clause. Government decides what is feasible, and it may not feasible for all government fleets, or large political donors. Business as usual.
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Their requirement isn't particularly draconian or unattainable. They're only requiring that half of new heavy-duty vehicles sold in 2035 be electric, which looks like it should be doable. They're only going to require that all running medium/heavy-duty vehicles are electric by 2045, and even then only when feasible.
Your own requirement, however? You want every single one of their vehicles -- not just new vehicles but every one they own -- to be electric before they can even begin making regulations for othe
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Well unless the government builds its own gas powered cars (yeah right) they will of course be covered by the mandate.
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1) Why should it be 100% when the standard they're imposing is 50%? Shouldn't you be agitating for 50%?
2) What makes you imagine that sales being 50% by 2035 is unattainable? You couldn't comply with what the headlines says for sure (typical editor fail) but it's quite conceivable that the new heavy truck sales will be 50% electric in 12 years. The total number of units is not very big, and there's plenty of short trips being made by heavy trucks which could be filled by EVs.Now, what actually wouldn't work
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Who gets to decide this? Please, please, can it be me? I will charge only however much you can afford to tell you whether or not it's feasible. It will have nothing to do with how much you pay me of course. Oh wait, it cannot be be, it will be the California government, and it will have nothing to do with how much you donate to the politicians in office.
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Does it matter that there is not a single heavy duty commercially viable ev semi tractor on the road today, anywhere?
Then again, we apparently live in a time where "insisting something strongly enough" passes for truth.
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Check your facts:
https://electrek.co/2022/12/16... [electrek.co]
The article is not entirely complimentary about the trucks either, but they are certainly viable
Here is another:
https://freightliner.com/truck... [freightliner.com]Look, I am not a fan of EVs (my car is a 1965 with a v8) but the fact is that BEVs are at the very least a large part of the future for all roadgoing transport.
Long-haul trucking WILL be one of the last markets served and there really is no doubt about that.But long-haul trucking has nothing to do with the actual ar
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You're funny, you link article saying Pepsi can only use for 100 mile haul (no chargers where they're going)
The eCascadia with the right battery pack option can go 250 miles.
These are not really "heavy trucks" because they don't have the range.
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Reminds me of a parable I heard as a kid. A king heads to the coast and commands the tide to recede, but nothing happens. The point? There are things in this world that not even a king can command to happen. Of course the parable takes more time in setting up the scene but the general theme is simple.
California can pass all the mandates they like, that doesn't mean they will happen. I can prove they believe this won't happen. Who passes a mandate that they believe will be successful AFTER they have le
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People who aren't selfish assholes? People who actually care about governance? It is possible for a politician to be something other than completely self-serving.
As for the rest, your problem is that you believe this initiative is doomed to fail because you personally dislike EVs and think that most other people think the same way. That doesn't seem to be the case, with EV sales growing at an absolutely incredible rate [seekingalpha.com]. So much so that the problem isn't selling them, it's producing enough to meet incre
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I'm not sure they drag race up inclines, so I'm not sure the 0 to 60 performance is that important.
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That's right, it's doomed to fail because supply can't keep up with demand. If by some miracle California does meet it's goal it will be because they dumped in so much government subsidies into this that it sucks up production capacity from other parts of the world.
There's a shortage of raw materials for batteries, a shortage of production capacity for batteries, and unless there's another World War Two style event to shift production this is not going to change significantly in 12 years. Even in World Wa
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California won't build factories or mines or any such thing.
It'll all be Chinese imports from strip mines and slave labor. Very progressive when you don't have to see the ugly costs of your policies. Just export that shit, import the goodness back.
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Appropriately modded troll. The successors, as the date gets closer, will reevaluate the feasibility of the mandate and adjust according. Just like every other California mandate of the past. Few of which have come into force as originally written but most of which, in their modified form, have made California a better place. I really should take advantage of current circumstances to move there.
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Feel free to move there. There's a reason so many have been moving out. But I'm sure you know more about how great it is there than people who have lived there their whole lives who are fleeing in droves.
I'd sell you my house there but I already dumped it just before housing prices dropped last year. Sellers are desperate now. You can probably get a good deal like only $950/sq ft now.
Good luck!
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Probably not but mandates will hasten electric vehicle development and adoption so even if many of the deadlines have to be extended (which many of them likely will) they will have still worked.
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by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Friday March 31, 2023 @10:34PM (#63415940)
I agree that you can’t build real change on top of liberal dreams, fairy dust and unicorn farts. But Ford and Rivian have demonstrated that large pickup trucks can be electrified, the results are pretty damn good, and they’re only 10-20k more expensive than the gas versions. Which isn’t all that much of a markup, cause trucks are PRICEY even on a good day.
And there are several companies developing even larger electric trucks. It’s actually really viable. Not everywhere, and not all the time. But 50% in 10-15 years isn’t actually all that crazy.
Don’t take my word for it. Do a bit of research on the Ford Lightening and the larger trucks in development. There’s quite a bit of real, honest-to-god heavy manufacturing getting spun up to build those vehicles.
Not a liberal tree-hugger wet dream. In about a decade, you can expect electric trucks to be a really big thing in Texas. Between their massive amount of wind and solar, and the cheap operating costs of electric vehicles, a LOT of conservative, red-blooded states and companies are gonna embrace electrification in the next 20 years.-
Sure but the range of an electric class 8 vehicle is only a fraction of a diesel.
That doesn't mean it can't work. But it does mean that solving this problem is going to require a lot of investment and commitment from from everyone. From paying higher prices for food and goods to building public works like electrified trains to carry good between cities.
Politicians and activists need to get over the idea that someone else will bear the cost and they can go on living life as normal secure in the knowledge th
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Certainly, small- and mid-size trucks will electrify first. Amazon fleets will be easy-peasy to electrify compared to the big-rigs.
But I suspect that electric big-rigs won’t be far behind. You mention energy density. That’s actually something thats EASIER to deal with on a big rig. Lots of extra volume there for a battery. Add 12 inches of length to a big rig, fill that extra space with a Li-ion battery, and I bet you could probably drive that big rig a quarter of the way across the continen-
LOL. You should apply at a BEV truck manufacturer!
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There is no reason that the trailer can't carry a battery too once it become cost effective and density gets better. This company is releasing batteries with twice the current density https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
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There's also a standardisation opportunity for the trailers here. Truck pulls into charging station. A set of standard sized batteries are removed and replaced with pre-charged ones. Off the truck goes.
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Yeah, but talking about class 8 is moving the goalpost. Class 8 has a gross vehicle weight of 33,000 pounds. This is talking about all vehicles with a gross vehicle weight over 14,000 pounds, which would be class 4 and up.
A good example of a class 4 truck would be a typical UPS delivery truck. There are a heck of a lot more of those than there are tractor trailers, and approximately none of those are driven more than double-digit miles per day. So you could electrify 100% of those tomorrow, subject to a
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Just curious, what are you hauling around every day that weighs 140k pounds?
I assume that's over multiple loads and not a single ginormous load...?
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Want more public transportation not more private transportation. EVs are something they settle for because they can't get walkable cities what would the multi-billion dollar car industry making damn sure that's not going to happen
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Drnb won't believe $10k, you know.
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The f150 lightning is a compliance vehicle at this point. It doesnâ(TM)t have the range when towing to be a reliable option. Sure for the average consumer that thinks they need a truck itâ(TM)s a fine
It needs advances in battery technology and/or charging infrastructure to be viable. Tesla bringing their 1MW charger from the semi to the vapor ware cyber truck looks promising
As a long haul RV guy I think the Tesla semi chassis in a class c would be sweet. 500 miles of range as long as I c
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Turn off smart quotes.
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No the results are very poor. Youtube is full of videos showing F150 lightning having extremely poor mileage doing even light towing. These electric trucks are only capable of personal transportation and not any kid of job or service work.
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I know we're living in nutty inflation times, but to me $10-20k is what an entire car should cost, not the premium you pay for a BEV model.
What the Ford Lightning is "pretty damn good" at, is being the typical suburban-dwelling vehicle that never sets a tire off pavement or sees a trailer. Living in central FL, I can say with absolute certainty there is a massive market for trucks that are never actually used for anything more demanding than hauling groceries and a Black Friday television.
Thing is, there i
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Hey don't forget how great it looks after you jack it up so you can off road it!
I'm in Fl too and I love seeing all the trucks that have clearly never left fresh smooth pavement and never will. All shiny and new looking and (hah) way cleaner than my car.
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Iirc, it was Ford who is projecting a $3 Billion USD loss on EV for next year. They called EV trucks an experiment. Not an investment.
That is not what most would call a success.
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Once conservatives embrace electrification, they’ll revise the history. They’ll all conveniently forget that they fought it tooth and nail and screamed “freeeeddduummmm” the entire way. The local pastor will be giving sermons about how Jesus drove a red-blooded American electric truck. Tucker Carlson will be talking about how George Soros is trying to keep the socialist gas guzzlers alive using the Jewish space lazerz.
At that point, the size of everyone’s manhood will be de-
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He's just trolling for karma in the echo chamber.
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