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Oracle Java Price Hike Could Be an Opportunity for OpenJDK Vendors

 1 year ago
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Oracle company headquarters.

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Inflation is increasing the cost of living and doing business around the world. The latest item to increase in price appears to be an Oracle Java SE subscription.

Java is among the most popular programming languages in the world and is available in a number of ways. The most recent release of the language — Java 19 — came out in September 2022. Java 19 boasts new features designed to improve performance.

Related: Amazon, Oracle Shrug Off Lawmaker Fears of Abortion Data Sales

Developers and organizations can choose to use the open source version of Java known as OpenJDK for free without support or get support via a commercial vendor. Oracle, a leader of the Java community, provides a fully supported and maintained version, known as Java SE, which carries a subscription cost for organizations.

Oracle published its latest public pricing list for its Java SE subscriptions on Jan. 23. Among the big changes is the replacement of the prior Java SE subscription options with a new Java SE Universal subscription plan. According to an Oracle FAQ, "the Java SE Universal Subscription is a simple, low-cost monthly subscription that includes Java SE Licensing and Support for use on Desktops, Servers or Cloud deployments." A potential implication of the new licensing option is that it will cost more for organizations to license Java SE in 2023 than it did in prior years.

Oracle did not respond to a request for comment from ITPro Today by press time.

Industry Responses to Oracle Java Price Hike Are Harsh

Jason Clark, principal software engineer at observability vendor New Relic, wasn't surprised by Oracle's Java licensing changes.

"Oracle previously altered their licensing in expensive ways with the release of Java 11," Clark told ITPro Today.

Java 11 was released in 2018 as a Long Term Support (LTS) update and has Oracle premier support until September 2023. Clark noted that findings from the New Relic 2022 State of the Java Ecosystem Report showed that prior rounds of licensing changes only served to strengthen the movement away from Oracle's distributions to other OpenJDK vendors.  

"It will be interesting to see whether these new terms stick and how much further things will shift off of Oracle's distributions," Clark said.

OpenJDK Remains Unaffected by Oracle Java Price Hikes

Vendors that compete with Oracle and offer their own supported OpenJDK options could well be the net benefactors of any price changes.

One such vendor is Red Hat, which is an active contributor to the open source OpenJDK community. A Red Hat spokesperson told ITPro Today that he would encourage users to consider OpenJDK as an alternative to Oracle Java SE if they're looking. 

Scott Sellers, CEO of Java platform vendor Azul, also sees potential opportunity for his firm as a result of Oracle's changes.

"This is the fourth licensing/pricing change for Oracle Java in the past four years," Sellers told ITPro Today.

According to Sellers, the new Java SE subscription model can be more expensive, perhaps by as much as three times, for typical enterprises.

"Third-party Java runtimes based on OpenJDK, such as those provided by Azul, are already rapidly increasing in popularity prior to this change," Sellers said. "We see this trend accelerating as customers become frustrated with the uncertainty around Oracle's frequent pricing changes."

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Python will continue to dominate, PHP will keep slipping in popularity, and we might see at least slightly less interest in Java.

That, in a nutshell, summarizes some of the key programming language trends that are likely to play out in 2023.

For a more detailed look at what to expect in the world of programming languages over the next year, here are IT Pro Today's predictions for major programming language trends heading into 2023.

Related: 5 Software Development Trends to Watch in 2023

Python's Popularity Persists

Perhaps the least surprising — but nonetheless noteworthy — programming language trend that we anticipate for 2023 is continuing popularity for Python, the general-purpose programming language that became the world's most popular language in recent years.

As I've argued previously, I'm not convinced Python deserves that top spot. I think Python is too slow, too rigid in its syntax, and too unproven as a language for truly large-scale projects.

But Python's persistent popularity would suggest that I'm in the minority here. Clearly, most programmers love Python, and there are no signs that that trend will change in 2023.

PHP Keeps Slipping

Another continuing programming language trend that is unlikely to end in 2023 is PHP's decline. The language that played a foundational role in building the modern, interactive web is just no longer as popular as it once was.

That doesn't mean PHP will disappear entirely. Don't expect platforms such as WordPress to switch to a new language anytime soon. But do expect to see increasingly few new projects using PHP.

Java Doesn't Recover Its Popularity

In a similar vein, Java — a language that was also central to the emergence of the software industry as we know it today — increasingly appears to be past its prime.

Related: Should Developers Still Learn Java Programming Language?

Java slipped out of the top spot on the TIOBE index — a position it had held for nearly two decades — a couple of years ago. As of 2023, there's every indication that that slippage was not temporary. Although Java will likely remain widespread over the coming year, it's hard to imagine it returning to its former stature as one of the very most popular languages. On the contrary, we suspect Java will continue to decline in popularity over the coming year and beyond.

Rust Remains Hot

Statistically speaking, Rust, the open source language with a focus on security and efficiency, remains relatively unpopular, with a twentieth-place ranking on the TIOBE Index. But Rust has a strong following of devoted acolytes — in fact, it's the "most loved" programming language according to Stack Overflow, even if it's not the most commonly used.

We expect that trend to hold for 2023 — not only because of Rust's strong community, but also because Rust has obvious appeal in a world where cybersecurity challenges remain widespread. Using Rust won't guarantee protection against attacks, but it's one step developers can take to make their software a bit more secure.

Assembly Language Grows More Popular

A little-noticed programming language trend on the TIOBE Index in recent years is a slow but steady increase in the popularity of assembly language.

Assembly language (a generic category that could include multiple specific languages) first entered the top 10 list of most popular languages in 2016. It's now in ninth place, which is a slight decrease from last year, but that still puts it ahead of languages such as PHP, Go, and Swift.

Why would so many programmers work with assembly code? It's hard to say for sure, but we imagine that a need for high performance is one factor. Assembly language's popularity may also reflect the growing adoption of specialized hardware, like internet of things (IoT) devices, that may require developers to write assembly code to access functionality that's not supported by higher-level languages on those devices.

Everyone Always Loves C

A last-but-not-least programming language trend to watch in 2023 is the persistent popularity of C.

C's not quite as popular as Python, but it's close. And given that C has now been around for over a half-century — which makes it nearly twice as old as languages like Python and Java — C stands out as a tried-and-true stalwart language that will probably retain its central importance to software development for decades to come. If you had to choose the single most important language to learn for the long term, C would be a good choice.

Conclusion

There you have it: the top programming language trends to expect to play out over the coming year.

Admittedly, we don't foresee any earth-shattering changes in 2023 in the world of software development. We'll mostly be seeing more of the same trends that have been in place at least for the past few years. But because some of those trends — like the decline of PHP and the unexpected popularity of assembly code — were a bit hard to see coming, they're worth continuing to follow through the coming year.

About the author

Christopher Tozzi headshotChristopher Tozzi is a technology analyst with subject matter expertise in cloud computing, application development, open source software, virtualization, containers and more. He also lectures at a major university in the Albany, New York, area. His book, “For Fun and Profit: A History of the Free and Open Source Software Revolution,” was published by MIT Press.

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