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Monday, October 17, 2022.

Today's newsletter is by Brian Sozzi, an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Read this and more market news on the go with

"Damn, this is going be a tough few more months for the economy and markets."

That's what I was thinking as our very Jennifer Schonberger chatted exclusively on Friday with San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly.

It's not that Daly provided anything markets haven't heard elsewhere from Fed officials in recent months. Rather, it was the matter-of-fact tone around potentially moving interest rates to the 4.5% to 5% range and the stickiness of inflation.

I have been struck by the tone of the economy elsewhere, too.

I just spoke at length with Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus. Mr. Marcus may be a 93-year-old billionaire, but by no means is he mailing it in.

Marcus remains very active in helping small businesses, is plugged into all things politics (yes, he was a Trump supporter), and keeps a close eye on how Home Depot is performing. Marcus flat-out told me that inflation is going to crush the economy and that regulations are strangling small businesses.

Even adjusting for Marcus' political leanings, it was striking to hear that tone about the economy from a business leader.

And then, I wake up at 4 am on Saturday and find these comments on the economy from Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska:

"After a ’stronger for longer‘ expansion, we envision a recession that comes later than consensus currently expects but hits the economy much harder than anticipated. Consensus expects a mild recession starting in Q1 and lasting about 3 quarters. We believe it will start later (around Q3) and last longer (5 quarters)."

Aneta isn't one of those fear-mongering newsletter hawkers. She is one of the best in the game at what she does. So to hear this super negative tone on the economic outlook surprised me.