BTIG Director of Policy Research Isaac Boltansky joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the midterm elections, the prospects of a GOP 'red wave,' flipping Senate seats, and the legal challenges President Biden's student loan forgiveness plan faces.

Video Transcript

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AKIKO FUJITA: Well, let's move on to the agenda over in Congress, officially in recess until after the midterms, setting up for a November lame duck session. For more on this and other DC happenings, we've got BTIG director of policy research Isaac Boltansky.

Isaac, we're already looking ahead beyond the midterms. I want to start with the midterms. How are things setting up? I mean, it feels like so much of it was about this red wave that was coming through. We've seen a bit of a shift back to the Democratic side. We're just about a month away. How are things setting up?

ISAAC BOLTANSKY: Yeah. Look, I think the narrative was always sort of positioned for this reversal. If we go back six months ago, it was the massive red wave we should all prepare for. But I think there was always going to be a shift, in part because that's how politics works in terms of narratives going back and forth. But also there were some real shifts, both in Capitol Hill and in the macroeconomic and macropolitical discussion that were positive for Democrats, everything from passing a few pretty meaningful bills to finally seeing gas prices going down.

So what I'm telling clients is, look, sure, we've gone from a red wave to a red puddle or a red trickle, however you want to frame it. But I am still as confident as ever that the House of Representatives is going to flip. Republicans only need to net five seats in the House. I think they are going to do that with ease. And I think Republicans will be in control of at least the House, which means we will have divided government next year.

The Senate, to me, is still a toss-up. I think anyone telling you with confidence that they know what the Senate is going to do is lying at this stage. There are too many unknowns in some of these really nuanced races with some real characters on both ends of the ideological spectrum.