Black Friday graphics card deals 2022: our expert predictions

Black Friday graphics card deals 2022: our expert predictions

It's a strange thing to think about Black Friday graphics card deals after the past couple of years, given the supply shortages and high prices making it almost impossible to find a graphics card at all, much less at or below MSRP, but things are definitely changing at exactly the right time.

Black Friday 2022 officially falls on November 25, but Black Friday deals have been starting earlier and earlier each year, with fantastic deals running all through November and even starting in mid-October. In the past few years, graphics cards have been entirely immune to these price cuts, but there's every reason to believe that this year is going to be different.

According to the highly-regarded PC build resource PC Part Picker (opens in new tab), the price trends for the best graphics cards have been steadily falling since April, coinciding with the crash of the cryptocurrency bubble that had been fueling demand for graphics cards and which kept prices unreasonably high for more than a year and a half. Most graphics cards can now be found for MSRP or even less, especially with the imminent launch of Nvidia and AMD's next-gen graphics cards in October and early November.

This means that the inventories of last-gen graphics cards need to be cleared out to make room for new stock, and without cryptominers there to buy up everything on the shelf, retailers will now need to compete on pricing in order to move units ahead of the holiday shopping season, so everything from the best cheap graphics cards to the best 1440p graphics cards are likely to see their prices cut fairly aggressively in the next few weeks.

Considering it's been so long since we've seen major graphics cards deals, it's easy to feel a bit untethered about what to expect, and in some ways we're just as unsure about what to expect as everyone else. But we've been covering the graphics card scene for a long time now here at TechRadar, and given what we have seen in the past and everything we've heard from manufacturers over recent months about their plans to clear last-gen graphics card inventories, we're going to break down what we expect to see this Black Friday and where you can find the best deals right now if you don't want to wait any longer to get the graphics card you want. 

We don't blame you, you've waited long enough.

Today's best graphics card sales

It's been two years now since the best Nvidia graphics cards dropped, followed by the best AMD graphics cards in November 2020, and prices have been outrageously high everywhere you look. Fortunately, that is turning around and you can actually find some deals right now as retailers make room for new Nvidia and AMD graphics card inventories. 

US graphics card sales

UK graphics card sales

Should you wait for a Black Friday graphics card deal?

Now, whether you wait until the Black Friday sales event to buy a new graphics card is a burning question on a lot of people's minds. This is really the first year in more than two years where we expect to actually see Black Friday graphics card deals, so a lot of us are wondering if the deals we're seeing now are going to plunge even lower in the next month of so.

All we can really say to trust your gut. If you see an Nvidia RTX 3080 on sale for 15% off MSRP and you can actually buy it, there's no reason not to jump on it. We're used to seeing 15% to 30% mark ups on graphics cards in the past couple of years, not to mention scalpers absolutely wrecking the market and driving up prices even further.

Will that aforementioned RTX 3080 possibly go lower? Sure, it probably will, but there are also going to be a lot more people fighting over it, so there is value in locking in a good deal now and getting the peace of mind of knowing that you'll actually get the graphics card you want rather then waiting things out for another few weeks.

However, if you're looking to get one of the really higher-priced cards like the RTX 3090 Ti, then there's some value in waiting for it to drop even further during Black Friday. There's no guarantee that it will drop further that where it's at now, but it's also unlikely to shoot back up to MSRP right after Black Friday, so if you can't find an even better deal on Black Friday, you can probably still find savings after the event ends. 

For something like this, set a price in your mind that you're willing to spend on this kind of card, and when you see one at or below that price, jump on it, whether that's today or on November 25. 

Black Friday graphics card deals: our predictions

(Image credit: Future)

When will the best Black Friday graphics card deals start in 2022?

Black Friday falls on November 25 this year, but we're already seeing graphics card prices fall pretty sharply right now, so when exactly something becomes a regular sale and when it can be called a Black Friday sale is debateable.

Prices for a lot of graphics cards are already hitting 15% to 20% less than MSRP, which is more or less the range that we saw across computer purchases during Black Friday 2021, according a recent Adobe report (opens in new tab). Will these prices go lower in November and on the big day itself? Probably, but we're seeing "Black Friday" sale prices on some graphics cards already, so we'd say the best deals may already be here, though you might have to hunt around for exactly the card you want at 15% to 20% off. That said, we think that every card will see this kind of price cut at some point somewhere over the next two months, so if you see it, don't hesitate to buy it.

An Adobe report showing computer prices falling about 15% for the entire month of November. (Image credit: Adobe)

Where will the best Black Friday graphics card deals be?

You'll find all the best Black Friday graphics card deals here, of course, as soon as they drop, but there are a number of major retailers to keep an eye on over the next two months and on Black Friday itself to find the best deals around.

US:
Amazon: Get $150 off the XFX Radeon RX 6900 XT (opens in new tab)
Best Buy: Save $300 on the Nvidia RTX 3080 Ti (opens in new tab)
Newegg: Find discounts of up to 31% off RTX 3000-series GPUs (opens in new tab)
Walmart: Get an RTX 3070 GPU for $140 off right now (opens in new tab)
Adorama: The Asus Tuf Gaming RTX 3060 is just $459 right now (opens in new tab)
B&H Photo: The Gigabyte RTX 3070 Vision OC is $190 off right now (opens in new tab)
Micro Center: Savings of up to $260 on RTX 3080 graphics cards (opens in new tab)

UK:
Amazon: Save up to £475 off the RTX 3090 Ti (opens in new tab)
Newegg: Get up to 19% off select graphics cards at Newegg (opens in new tab)
Box: Find up to £218 off an RTX 3060 graphics card right now (opens in new tab)
Currys: The PowerColor Radeon RX 6900 XT is £481 off right now (opens in new tab)
Ebuyer: Get an RTX 3080 GPU for as much as £180 off (opens in new tab)

What Black Friday graphics card deals do we expect in 2022?

Knowing what to expect from Black Friday graphics card deals is a tough question, since its been a while since the graphics card market was stable enough to get a read on what is "normal." Still, there are a number of things we can say about this year based on the current state of things.

• The cryptocurrency crash and Ethereum 'Merge' event: Earlier this year, the cryptobubble popped, making GPU-dependent cryptomining unprofitable for cryptominers, easing demand for graphics cards. More recently, Ethereum – the world's second largest cryptocurrency – moved away proof-of-work mining, eliminating the need for graphics cards entirely. This has driven demand for graphics cards back down to more reasonable levels.
• Nvidia Lovelace and AMD RDNA 3: The launch of next generation graphics cards from AMD and Nvidia in October and November 2022 comes just as demand for RTX 3000-series and RX 6000-series graphics cards have declined, which is just putting more downward pressure on the prices of these graphics cards.

This is all happening just as consumers are gearing up for Black Friday, so they will already be on the hunt for deals as it is, so retailers are going to have even more incentive to push last-gen graphics cards out the door at lower prices on Black Friday.

How good will this year's Black Friday graphics card deals be?

We expect graphics card deals on Black Friday to be pretty great all around. For one, the collapse of the cryptobubble has tanked demand for these graphics cards, so prices are naturally going to fall regardless, but this drop is coinciding with retailers really needing to move inventories to make room for the next-gen cards that are launching in October and November.

We're already seeing 20% discounts off some high end graphics cards, but we're not sure that we'll see steeper price cuts than that. More likely, we'll just see more cards getting these kinds of discounts. Maybe not 20% off, but between 15% and 20% is feasible, with a lot more cards getting discounts around the 10% mark.

How can I get the best graphics card Black Friday deals?

(Image credit: Future)

What specs should I look for when buying a graphics card on Black Friday?

The most important thing to consider when looking for graphics cards deals on Black Friday is to consider what you need your graphics card for. If you've got a 1440p gaming monitor, then you really don't need anything above an RTX 3070 or RX 6800 graphics card and you should focus on finding these deals.

Likewise, if you're looking for the best 1080p graphics card for esports gaming, then you're in even better shape, since these are already among the cheapest graphics cards of the last generation, and so you'll be able to find them at even better prices.

Another thing to consider is what graphics cards are being replaced by the next-gen Nvidia Lovelace and AMD RDNA 3 GPUs. We know the RTX 4090 will go on sale on October 12, and the RTX 4080 will go on sale in November. AMD is also gearing up for its RDNA 3 launch in November as well, and we should hopefully see those cards just before Black Friday, though we're not sure which ones yet exactly.

That means that you will also see some downward price pressure on Nvidia RTX 3080 and RTX 3090 cards, both the vanilla and their Ti variants. Likewise with AMD Radeon RX 6800, RX 6800 XT, RX 6900 XT, and RX 6950 XT graphics cards. We might also see the RX 6700 XT being replaced in November as well, so that card might be a good candidate for a Black Friday sale.

What about Black Friday gaming PC deals?

One other thing to look for are prebuilt systems, since Black Friday gaming PC deals are consistently some of the best around, and deals on RTX 3000-series systems are going to be even better than in years past.

We haven't gotten word yet on any prebuilt gaming PCs from mainstays like HP, Alienware, Lenovo, and others with any RTX 4090 or RTX 4080 graphics cards, but they are certainly on the way, so you can expect the models they are replacing to get some serious discounting, since these are much larger units that need more space to warehouse, meaning there's more pressure to move them out for new units.

3 best graphics cards to look out for on Black Friday

(Image credit: Nvidia)

The Nvidia RTX 3060 Ti is currently the best graphics card for most people, and this is the biggest reason to look for this card on Black Friday. It's already getting some decent price cuts at various retailers, making it a good candidate to get some heftier discounting during Black Friday – especially since this card likely has a lot more stock to clear than higher end cards.

Read more: Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060 Ti review

(Image credit: AMD)

This card is one of the RDNA 2 cards that are most likely to get a refresh from AMD in November, meaning this card is likely to see some downward price pressure come Black Friday. And since this one is already one of the cheapest 4K cards on the market, this one is definitely one to look for on sale if you can find it. We expect this one to drop down near the $400 range around Black Friday.

Read more: AMD Radeon RX 6800 review

(Image credit: Nvidia)

The RTX 3090 is one of the most powerful graphics cards ever made, and its the one graphics card we know for certain will be "obsolete" come Black Friday. Its replacement, the Nvidia RTX 4090, is going on sale on October 12. Given the very high retail price of this card, it's been out of reach of most consumers since it launched, but with the RTX 4090 being just $100 more expensive at retail than the RTX 3090, it is already seeing price reductions since the RTX 4090 announcement. This makes it a great candidate for a surprise Black Friday deal of a few hundred dollars off its MSRP.

Read more: Nvidia GeForce RTX 3090 review

• This year's Black Friday graphics card deals aren't live yet, and won't be for another couple of weeks, but today's best graphics card deals can still help you save as much – and sometimes more – than you could get even on the big day itself.