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The End of the Manual Transmission Is Near | PopMech Automotive News

 2 years ago
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The End of the Manual Transmission Is Near

modern car gearbox lever
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Growing up, I would shift gears from the passenger seat of my dad’s manual BMW 325i during our commute to school. For me, the mechanical connection between man and machine was just so damn cool. In fact, this experience, and others like it, both piqued my interest in being a car enthusiast and brought me and my father even closer together—and we’re both better for it.

Being able to drive a manual car is about so much more than the simple joy of being in control of a machine. Most of my sense of accomplishment came from navigating the steep curve of learning how to drive a stick shift with my dad at my side—it’s not something you master overnight. I’m not ashamed to mention that it took me a few sessions in a parking lot to get the fundamentals down. Now, fewer kids are going to have this chance as manuals become harder and harder to find.

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Most automakers have adopted a comprehensive electrification policy, largely converting their lineup to plug-in instead of fill-up as early as 2030. In this emerging climate, building vehicles with three pedals and a gear lever is seen as, well… a waste of time.

Keep reading to find out why the manual transmission could soon be a thing of the past.

Let’s Do The Numbers

As sad as it may be, manual vehicles make up a miniscule percentage of the current market share. Cars.com data shows that the decline has been happening much longer than I expected—with 1980 being the manual transmission’s most recent peak production year, making up 34.6% of U.S. sales. Decades later in 2010, that number fell all the way down to 3.4%, dropping even further to 1.5% in 2020. That means that even as I was easing off the clutch from the passenger seat, the market share for manuals was plummeting.

The reason for such a steep manual decline? Automatic transmissions slowly but surely became more advanced, crowding out the previous necessity for manual transmissions. What started as a vague and slurred shifting experience is now efficient and fast. Here are the modern advantages of an automatic transmission.

More Performance

While most enthusiasts know 0 to 60 times don’t tell the complete story, automakers haven’t received the memo. They’ll do anything to shrink that number as much as possible. Just think of Tesla’s Roadster, which was rumored to have cold gas thrusters—a.k.a. rockets—to propel it to 60 mph in under two seconds. That went well.

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But manual transmissions lose in that race: They just take too long to shift. Regardless of how fast you can row through the gears yourself, you’ll always be trampled by a modern automatic. Case in point: Porsche’s class-leading PDK automatic gearbox can change gears in just eight milliseconds. This double-clutch technology is trickling down to more consumer-level cars, allowing plebians like myself to enjoy near-instant gear changes.

More Efficiency

It’s a common argument that manual transmission vehicles are more efficient than their automatic counterparts. While that may have been true in 1980, things are a bit different nowadays. According to the EPA, the number of gears available in an automatic transmission surpassed that of the manual in 2012. You’ve likely seen vehicles nowadays with 7-, 8-, 9-, or even 10-speed transmissions. The reason? More gears equals better fuel economy. Higher gears require fewer revs on the highway, leading to improved gas mileage.

Crossing that line meant manufacturers didn’t need to rely on stick-shift vehicles to comply with Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE). These standards, mandated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, regulate how far vehicles must travel on a single gallon of fuel.This rapid increase in performance and efficiency made the manual transmission less of a necessity for OEMs, and more of a personal preference for enthusiasts like myself.

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The Verdict

gunhild liljequist
The designer of the GTI interior, Gunhild Liljequist.
Volkswagen

As the proud owner of a manual Volkswagen GTI (one of the seminal hot hatchbacks), the news leaves a lump in my throat. For goodness sake, the woman who designed the interior of the original Mk 1 GTI—one of my favorite automotive designers, Gunhild Liljequist—came up with the idea of the golf ball shift knob. Why? Because she thought it was fun and different. It matches the ethos of the original vehicle, which felt slower than walking pace but still somehow managed to put a massive smile on your face.Regardless of the GTI’s heritage, I often get approached with questions about my modern daily driver like “doesn’t shifting gears get annoying?” Sometimes, I come across people who aren’t aware of what a manual transmission even is.

However, all good things must come to end, and it’s about time for the manual transmission to punch its time card. But in this generation of endless connectivity and instant gratification, it’s still sad to see interest in spending time learning mechanical skills waning. And I simply wouldn’t be where I am today without those early experiences driving with my dad.

Matt Crisara Matt Crisara is a native Texan who has an unbridled passion for cars and motorsports, both foreign and domestic, and as the Autos Editor for Popular Mechanics, he writes the majority of automotive coverage across digital and print.
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