Here’s what food company Campbell and automaker Ford can teach us about sticker shock, and how little the experts know about inflation.

Photo by Andrea Piacquadio: https://www.pexels.com/photo/woman-in-gray-tank-top-covering-her-face-with-her-hand-3812752/

Sometime in the early 1970s, I was helping my mom unload the groceries. She didn’t have to ask. I enjoyed being in the kitchen and soaking up her wisdom on things like Jell-O mold as a legit salad and 101 uses for Velveeta. This was foundational knowledge. I figured it would serve me well for a lifetime.

We had a routine: I removed items from the bags and Mom made certain to store them in their proper place. She didn’t want to have to guess later where Chef Boy-Ar-Dee was hiding.

“Look at this,” she said, interrupting our machine-like efficiency. Mom had placed one hand on her hip — never a good sign. In the other hand she was holding out a can of Campbell’s Tomato Soup.

“What about it?” I asked. “Looks normal to me.”

“Check the sticker,” Mom said.

“Seventeen cents,” I said.

“That’s right,” Mom said with a nod. “Why don’t you put this one away, over there in the cabinet next to the other cans of tomato soup. While you’re at it, look at those sticker prices.”

“Experts get paid to have an opinion — not to be correct.”

I wasn’t sure where this was going. Was I being groomed for her role as chief pantry organizer? Not a chance. This was to be an economics lesson.

Campbell’s Tomato Soup was a staple in our home. We never ran out. Anytime the stockpile was in doubt, Mom would toss a few more cans in her shopping cart. In this way, we wound up with a healthy backlog. I now waded into the soup cache, as directed, and soon discovered what had soured her mood.

“This one says 14 cents,” I said.

“I bought that last month,” Mom returned.

“Whoa, this one way in the back says 11 cents,” I said.

“How are people supposed to get by?” Mom said. “This is crazy.” Now both hands were on her hips, and annoyance had blossomed into anger. I think it was that can way in the back — the one for 11 cents — that ruined her day.

For the first time in 40 years, we are experiencing seemingly unrestrained rising consumer prices — and it is ruining the day for many people. That same can of tomato soup, now $1.79, has doubled in price in just the last two years. This is an extraordinary escalation that greatly overstates the general rate of inflation. Still, in the U.S. broad consumer prices are rising at an 8.3% annual clip — up from less than 2% each of the last 10 years. It’s enough to drive people from annoyed to angry.

The increase in soup prices has a familiar source: rising raw materials costs, supply shortages, and higher transportation expense. The price of steel in soup cans is up 40% over two years; the diesel fuel used by trucks that haul all that soup has doubled over the same period.

The pandemic has a lot to do with it. Millions of workers who produce goods went into lockdown, which created severe shortages of key materials like paper and plastic. The war in Ukraine has further disrupted the supply chain, especially as it relates to food. Ukraine produces about a fifth of the world’s high-grade wheat. This critical grain is now sitting in fields or silos with little means of being transported out of the country. I won’t even talk about gas.

Rising consumer prices is a global problem. Inflation is rampant in Germany, Britain, France, Canada, and many other nations. Make it political if you wish. But it wasn’t a politician that decided automakers should outsource their critical chip needs to China. This single regrettable decision is behind a massive shortage of new vehicles that has pushed new- and used-car prices into the stratosphere.

I haven’t bought a new car in years. But my 2009 Hyundai began to creak a few weeks ago, prompting me to shop for a replacement. The first vehicle I looked at was a Ford Bronco, which was priced an astounding $20,000 (40%) over the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. Mom taught me to never pay retail. I wasn’t about to pay retail-plus.

The car dealer called it a “fair-market adjustment” and assured me that he was not gouging. “This is where the market is today,” he said. Ford cannot deliver as many Broncos as people want. So, the relatively few folks able to get one at or near the suggested retail price can easily flip it back into the market for a quick $10,000 to $15,000 profit. Ford saw all that money on the table and decided to grab some. By the way, don’t ask for a Bronco with a trailer hitch. Those are made in China too. Can’t get one.

As in the ’70s, when Mom was freaking about tomato soup at 17 cents, inflation today scares the heck out of anyone my age — nearing or in retirement. We need our money to safely grow a while longer before we can live happily ever after. The last time we had an inflationary spiral the stock market went flat for a decade. That’s not a deal anyone signs up for, and some experts are predicting a repeat market performance.

Are stocks dead? This matters even if you are not directly invested. Stocks make up a healthy chunk of most public and private pension funds and 401(k) and other retirement accounts. You want them moving higher. When they stall for long periods, it usually signals that something is not going well in the economy and people are hurting.

Yet it’s anyone’s guess how this will turn out. I promise you that no one knows. In 1979, BusinessWeek famously declared the “Death of Equities” on its cover. Inflation was about to turn a corner and one of the greatest bull markets in history followed soon after.

Only a year ago, top economists including many at the Federal Reserve and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman at The New York Times were confident that inflation would be mild and brief. Ride it out was their message. This has been called the worst inflation call in the history of the Fed. Predicting the future is, well, difficult. Even experts suck at it.

I wrote about stocks and the economy for the national press for 30-plus years. I long have said there are three stages to becoming a good market reporter: First, you know very well that you don’t know how the market works, and you assume other people do; second, you think you understand the market, but you really don’t; finally, you accept that you do not understand the market, but that’s okay because no one else does either.

What’s the point of all this? Experts get paid to have an opinion — not to be correct. The playbook is never the same twice. The market is already down 20% on fears that tomato soup, and everything else, will keep getting more expensive. Somewhere, I’m sure, Mom has her hands on her hips. But what if consumer prices turn a corner relatively soon and the market snaps back?

Ride it out is almost always the correct strategy, even when the experts you count on are dead wrong.

Dan is a former columnist at TIME, where he covered the markets and the economy. He’s hoping his ’09 Hyundai lasts a little longer. Dan is writing a memoir about his early years at small-town newspapers.