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MLB should borrow Harley-Davidson's age fix | Medium

 2 years ago
source link: https://medium.com/@dankadlec17/baseball-has-a-hog-problem-3f6a11d1ce
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Baseball Has A ‘Hog’ Problem

Here’s how the legendary motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson is dealing with issues related to its aging customer base — and why MLB should take the hint.

Waiting for the replay. Licensed through Wikimedia Commons

Major League Baseball has a Harley-Davidson problem: its primary customers are old and getting older. In both cases, this has been evident for at least a generation and yet neither has landed on a solution. At least Harley, whose beefy motorcycles are known as “hogs,” is trying.

As a new baseball season begins, doomsayers again are forecasting the sport’s demise. The game is too slow. It lasts too long. There are too many strikeouts. Young people would sooner pawn their PlayStation than tune in. It’s all true. I’m not here to pile on. But I can’t resist the analogy with Harley, which also has been on something like a death watch.

“The triple is the most exciting play in baseball”

— Hank Aaron

The two institutions have a lot in common. Baseball has been around longer, but not much. Harley built its first motorcycle in 1903; MLB was founded in 1876. So, both theoretically know something about survival. Both are iconic brands, as much Americana as Norman Rockwell, Disneyland, and bluegrass.

Both also have fallen on rough times. Shipments of new Harleys to dealers are down 60% since 2008. Baseball just had its worst year for attendance since 1984. To be fair, the pandemic had a lot to do with the slide in attendance. But pre-pandemic MLB attendance in 2019 was the lowest since 1997.

The average viewer of an MLB telecast is 57 years old, up from 52 two decades ago and the oldest of any major sport. The average age of a Harley rider is…we don’t know exactly. Harley once provided the information but stopped in 2009 as the long-rising average age approached 50. Most analysts agree the average age of a rider is now 50-plus.

There is no long-term prosperity for a motorcycle maker whose prime customers are aging out, which data suggest begins at about age 55. Harley may have stopped detailing the discouraging trend in rider age, but the demographics are hardly a secret. With Armageddon on its horizon, Harley’s stock has been dead money for two decades, and a massive loser since 2013.

Baseball is a bit different. But its long-term prosperity is nonetheless in question. Older fans will watch games until they die. Arguably, they will watch even more games as they become less active. But the trend is still a nightmare because aging fans don’t go to the ballpark as often, and they don’t spend money on jerseys or, well, much of anything.

Who is going to advertise on those MLB telecasts? Nightly network news has already sponged up Big Pharma’s marketing budget; daytime TV has sewed up the spend on retirement villages and reverse mortgages.

I’m a baseball fan. I love that there is a game every day, unique in major sports. I love the storylines that surround prospects, veterans, and comebacks. I want baseball to thrive. But the sport has no urgency about its troubles — unlike Harley, which comes up with a reinvigoration plan every few years.

Harley is now making a point of targeting younger riders with affordable bikes and electric models with zip, among other steps. So far, these steps haven’t done much more than keep gas in a sputtering engine. But, as I said, at least they are trying, and finally there may be reason for hope.

Revenue at Harley exceeded expectations the last two quarters and the stock was showing some lift before the war in Ukraine prompted the company (like some 500 others) to pull out of Russia. If the momentum stalls, you can be certain the company will try something else. You don’t survive 119 years without adapting.

Unless you are Major League Baseball.

That isn’t entirely fair. I know. And as I said, I’m not here to pile on. MLB has tinkered plenty. It lowered the pitching mound in 1968 and began using instant replay to overturn calls in 2008. This year, we have a designated hitter in the National League, duh, and the decidedly wired-world PitchCom to discourage sign stealing. We may not be far away from bigger changes like limited defensive shifts and larger bases.

So, baseball is trying. Kind of. Yet with no stock price to defend, MLB will take its sweet time. One wonders why baseball hasn’t moved faster to defend its long-held and increasingly dubious claim as national pastime.

I’m not one to suggest that corporate thinking necessarily applies to problem solving outside the business world — say, in politics or with a legal monopoly like MLB. But perhaps baseball should borrow from Harley’s latest playbook, designed precisely to revive an aging brand that has an aging customer base.

Harley’s five-year plan, termed The Hardwire, was introduced last year to burnish the company’s “lifestyle brand” and “drive desirability” of its venerable product. Here are some components baseball might consider:

Invest in our strongest segmentsSeems kind of obvious, right? Take what is working and make it more broadly accessible. The National Basketball Association has been especially good at this, expertly marketing aging superstars like LeBron James alongside new talent like Trae Young and Ja Morant. Baseball, meanwhile, has struggled to make household names of exciting young players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. The average age of an NBA viewer, by the way, is 42.

Expand Selectively That means carefully, if at all. Does baseball really need to create new franchises in Las Vegas and Nashville, as has been discussed, while the ones in Tampa Bay and Miami play in nearly empty stadiums?

Tighten Inventory See above. You want excitement for your product? Don’t flood the market. Harley is limiting new production as it enters the certified pre-owned world to capture younger riders — and it is working.

Own the futureFor Harley, that means developing the best electric motorcycles. MLB has been horrible at getting to the future first. The National Football League and NBA were light years ahead with instant replay review and novel camera angles. Boomers loved the baseball voices of the Vin Scully era, which is now over. But for years I thought baseball should offer a second broadcast with Millennial appeal.

Today, there is opportunity to lead with robot umpires, which is being discussed but will not be fully integrated soon. No other sport except possibly tennis is so well built for tech-based officiating. Balls and strikes would be consistent. Strategically placed sensors would never miscall a bang-bang play at first base. Taking the guesswork out of close calls would speed up the game.

Grow our connection with customers MLB is pretty good at milking its history and tradition. That’s why robot umpires are problematic. Traditionalists like watching the manager kick dirt on an umpire’s shoes. Home runs rescued the sport in the late 1990s. But now there are too many.

Hank Aaron once said, “The triple is the most exciting play in baseball.” Well, in 2019, major leaguers hit a total 784 triples spread among 30 teams. There haven’t been 1,000 triples in a season since 1983. Back in the 1920s, when there were just 16 teams and the sport was earning its place as the national pastime, the league recorded more than 1,000 triples every single year.

Can we get some of that again?

Dan Kadlec is a former columnist at TIME. He has opposed the Designated Hitter rule for 30 years but now sees the light. He is writing a memoir based on his early career at small-town newspapers.


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