This Is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income
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This Is Now The Worst Drawdown on Record for Global Fixed Income
- -2.16%
(Bloomberg) -- Global bond markets have suffered unprecedented losses since peaking last year, as central banks including the Federal Reserve look to tighten policy to combat surging inflation.
Most Read from Bloomberg
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for government and corporate debt total returns, has fallen 11% from a high in January 2021. That’s the biggest decline from a peak in data stretching back to 1990, surpassing a 10.8% drawdown during the financial crisis in 2008. It equates to a drop in the index market value of about $2.6 trillion, worse than about $2 trillion in 2008.
While there were signs the brutal selloff was easing on Wednesday, rising inflationary pressure around the world is fueling concerns about the ability of the global economy to weather any sustained period of higher financing costs. For investors, it means the allure of holding debt -- even safe government bonds -- is diminishing given how sensitive valuations are to interest rates, a measure referred to as duration.
“The safe haven attributes of Treasuries have been undermined when one adds duration risk to the equation,” said Winson Phoon, head of fixed income research at Maybank Securites Pte. Ltd.
That’s a blow to money managers accustomed to years of consistent gains, backstopped by loose monetary policy. The slump also poses a particular threat to the expanding elderly population in many major economies, given retirees are often heavily reliant on fixed-income investments.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, and Chair Jerome Powell said this week it is prepared to increase them by a half percentage-point at its next meeting if needed. His hawkish tone prompted traders to rapidly ratchet up estimates for how aggressively the Fed will tighten monetary policy this year, with money markets pricing in the equivalent of seven more quarter-point hikes by the end of 2022.
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