Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown
Tell HN: China Is Entering Lockdown
154 points by user_named 3 hours ago | hide | past | favorite | 168 comments
Over the past two years there's been smaller regional outbreaks here and there, but they were quickly contained. This current outbreak started about a month ago with cases slowly starting to tick up. About two weeks ago it became clear to me that we would soon be entering lockdown as the omicron cases won't stop increasing, imported as well as local. Last Friday there were about a 1000 new daily cases nationally, higher than at the peak in 2020. Since there is no clear change in policy, and already a lot is being done, there is no reason to believe that infections won't keep increasing exponentially. Today, Sunday, daily new cases reached 2000-3000.
Schools, gym, parks, and most other public venues have closed. Education is being done online, and also adult education is shut down if it is offline.
WFH is pretty much non-existant in China, even after 2020, but from next week we'll work from home as will many offices.
When ordering on Meituan, some select goods are out of stock at some stores , like tomatoes, minced meat. Still, you can get it if you just search it from another store. My neighborhood seems perfectly normal and the supermarket has lots of stock though some beef is sold out. Several supermarkets on Meituan are closed but there's lots still open. I've got food for two months so no issues.
Still, I see this as a good thing because: (1) Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized (2) A new policy will emerge as it is already clear that you can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous. In fact what I'm worried about is having to be in quarantine hospital or hotel, that's it. There are officials talking about ending the 0-policy but no clear solution yet.
I expect this to last 3 months.
Edit: I'm in Shanghai. Types of lockdown vary between cities and even districts and sub-districts. Here, you may get to stay at home for two days if you're a second degree contact; but if you didn't wear a mask it'll be 14 days. If you're a first degree contact it's quarantine hotel for 14. If you're infected I believe you go to a hospital. In Shenzhen, some communities that are under lockdown are not able to order groceries but only get the type of hotel/airplane food you get in quarantine. So I definitely want to have proper food, which is why I'll WFH for a long time, so as to not come into first or something cond degree contact.
> can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous
There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital.
This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor handling of the pandemic.
Sorry but what's the source that mRNA boosters work against Omicron ? I thought it's more like the vaccines neutralize threat from the original 2-3 variants and Omicron isn't deadly in and of itself.
Also maybe this is China specific paranoia since neighbouring India doesn't care much and they seem to be doing fine wrt Omicron.
Wrt. mRNA boosters, I know it is a common talking point that China is in trouble because it doesn't have mRNA-vaccines but I believe the vaccines that China have is of the type as the AstraZeneca vaccine, that is commonly used in the UK which now is free of COVID-restrictions. In other words; if is China is willing, it can go down the same path of vax-and-let-it-rip.
AZ is adenovirus vector (like J&J, Sputnik), SinoVac and Sinopharm are inactivated.
> if is China is willing, it can go down the same path of vax-and-let-it-rip
Many many fewer Chinese have immunity from having had the virus than Brits
The one made by CanSino is adenovirus vector.
The point I am trying to make is that this is a political choice rather than a question of access to technology.
Not true, Pfizer was used in the initial vaccination rollout too.
Neither of these points are quite correct - mRNA vaccines were extensively used for both initial vaccinations and boosters in the UK. IIRC the AZ vaccine was quite quickly withdrawn for everyone under 40.
If you need more than two, its not a vaccine. Unless you change the prior definition, as they did.
Huh? Plenty of previous non-covid vaccines require more than two shots.
Infants have three or four doses for some of their vaccines.
"but I believe the vaccines that China have is of the type as the AstraZeneca vaccine"
Absolutely not. And that is they key problem.
Personally I was quite sure that Beijing would allow Biontech sooner or later, especially since the Chinese company Fosun was a very smart early investor in BNT.
But unfortunately it seems Xi's nationalism is now so strong that he is willing to let many people die for it.
Sorry. What I wrote is clearly incorrect.
It should have said:
Some of the vaccines that China have is of the same type as the AstraZeneca vaccine.
I don't think so. What vaccine should that be? Sinovac is certainly not.
Indeed.
I’ve been somewhat amazed at how China has handled it as of late. I get the short-term goal - stop Covid from taking hold by isolating new outbreaks. They have the manpower and the organization to isolate entire cities, do mass testing and lockdown neighborhoods.
1. It’s pretty clear with Omnicron the higher infectivity is making that task harder and lockdowns longer
2. The lockdowns have real economic impact that you might be able to weather in the short-term AND while other countries are in the same bucket, but it’s not a long term solution.
3. What is their long-term goal? Maintain zero Covid forever? Impossible unless a highly effective vaccine that prevents transmission is invented.
I have family in another authoritarian country that took a similar approach to China. It bit them in the ass when the outbreaks were bigger than they could handle so then it became massive vaccination (by coming hat in hand to the companies/countries that they had earlier told “we have it under control”).
Now it’s pretty much endemic, but hospitals aren’t overwhelmed so the government is just forging ahead. I think mostly due to the massive economic hit the country took.
My guess is China will end up doing the same as the Western countries - once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals, they’ll just stop restrictions and pretend that was the plan all along and pat themselves on the back on how much better and smarter China handled it.
"once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals"
Afaik Sinovac is pretty much useless against Omicron.
> once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals
They already do. And more than one public figures of ChinaCDC posted "we had to live with COVID eventually" online.
This is not what Xi is trying to do though, at least for now.
There are many people who will die from many common diseases that are communicable, including the standard flu. This argument doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
At risk people (the vast, vast minority) need to self quarantine instead of having the unrealistic expectation that the everyone should instead of them.
I see you are planning to spend your golden years sheltering entirely indoors with others of the vast vast minority? ie. the over 60-70's.
I can sympathize with your situation. I was in an office building in Shanghai last November when it got locked down for 48 hours - nobody in or out. Everybody ended up ordering takeout, and the entire building had to be tested for COVID a total of four times. The most insane part is that they don't even let you take pictures of the lockdown (I almost got my phone confiscated by the police for taking pictures).
Also, sleeping in an office chair is a lot harder than it looks.
Exactly. This is another situation that everyone wants to avoid getting caught in. Like I mentioned, it is now about not getting hit with control measures rather than avoiding the actual disease.
I should also mention that the situation is t actually "bad." I can leave my apartment and walk around, probably take the taxi anywhere in the city. But I think that will change over the next few weeks.
Omg pretty strict procedure, you had to remain in the office for 48 hours?
Yes, offices become quarantine sites if someone test positive.
Only a thousand daily cases in a country with a population of 1G? That's either very impressive, or very impressively underreported. For comparison, Belgium currently has 10 times as many daily new cases, with a population that's 100 times smaller (and no lockdown).
Belgiums handling of covid has been terrible. I think you cannot even imagine what proper policy looks like if you live in Belgium and think that is the norm.
I don't necessarily disagree with that statement, but it'd be nice if you backed it up with some actual examples.
Infections per capita 2020-2021, compared to the rest of the world. Belgium has had some of the worst stats in the entire world. Did they not tell you that in Belgium?
> Did they not tell you that in Belgium?
What's up with this pointless snarkiness? You're making it sound like the machinations of an evil propaganda machine, when in reality Belgium has been quite good at overreporting covid stats. Not sure which stats you're referring to as being "some of the worst in the world".
You question the reporting in a country, I do the same and you get upset.
Belgium has been among the top in every chart I've seen. I can't imagine those charts not having been reported on in Belgium.
Someone else already mentioned overcounting and you are just ignoring it.
https://m.dw.com/en/belgiums-coronavirus-overcounting-contro...
Read up about it, before saying they did "terrible".
Statistics in this case are a simplified form of complex policies, ... Countries overcounting vs. undercounting should be the top 1 variable to be aware of.
Ps. I'm from Belgium, I'm very much aware of all statistics and the controversy overcounting causes.
COVID deaths per-capita were really high in Belgium and it was one of the worst in the world until recently, but it seems it's now just about average compared to southern European countries, but way above most of its neighbouring countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
NL is undercounting by 30 to 40% in the official figures.
Belgium did overreporting, so they had 2x the COVID counts vs. Other countries just because of that ( every untested death was assumed a COVID death).
Most people that say Belgium did "terrible" don't even know about that.
“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.”
You can try entering Beijing from the outside and see how difficult it is.
How do you square your conspiracy theory with the OP? What's the purpose of a lockdown now?
Is Uyghur incarceration also a conspiracy theory, or does CCP lie about that but never about COVID?
Lockdown now is not exclusive with false case and death numbers.
That's not very fun. You're supposed to tell me a convincing story about why the lockdown is happening. Someone quickly replied to me about how the present lockdown is specifically intended to cause inflation in the U.S. Unfortunately they were too embarrassed or didn't want to face the next logical question (because conspiracy theories are never finished), so they quickly deleted the comment. But at least they tried instead of gesturing vaguely to the CCP and letting ideological obviousnesses do the heavy lifting.
The WHO can only report what the health authorities of each country report to them.
>omicron when it is not dangerous
Not true. There are cardiac complications long after you have had any version of COVID.
"China is Entering Lockdown" seems like a massive overstatement. A couple of Tier 1 cities != China.
Sure. Not yet. But this is the direction it's going in because there is nothing stopping it. One or two weeks from now that will be clear.
Thank you! As someone considering flying my family out of China soon I had a rush of fear reading that headline!
If you want them to avoid lockdown you better fly them out now and not in two weeks.
I probably chose the wrong time to take time off, and travel to SEA for three weeks. Halfway expecting to land there and spend the next few months in lockdown. Wonder how HR will take it.
I live in Thailand and the situation here is much the same as many western countries. Omicron is spread widely, and people are still taking precautions (mask wearing is almost universal) but there's no lockdowns.
Traveling here is fine apart from the risks of catching COVID but that's no different to most other parts of the world. It's not like China at all.
SEA and China are two very
very different places
South East Asia is pretty much opening up and treating Covid as endemic. You shouldn't have problems.
They were very much in line with opening up the past month, but the past few days calls are getting louder to do something about the rising number of infections; along with the strain on the health care systems.
"They"? It's a whole bunch of independent countries with very different COVID policies, but virtually all are moving towards opening up, not locking down.
They tend to harmonize their policies by coordinating through ASEAN though. I don't know abut COVID specifically, however.
If you can even get in. If you're in SEA I think you still can but you may want to hurry up.
Departing within 72 hours, loads of paperwork went into getting approved to get in. Everything seems to be opening up, but while most are calling for things to open up even further; authorities are pointing fingers again to the rising number of infections and the possibility of collapse of the health care systems. However, two weeks ago, all seemed absolutely fine.
If Hong Kong is any indicator of what's coming in China, the scale of that wave will have serious consequences on the country if they continue to insist on enforcing their stringent (and heartless) zero-covid policy.
Be ready for even more supply-chain disruption.
Over time, the effects of covid19 on heart, brain, lungs, vascular system, sensory system, kidneys & more will become better understood.
Until then, any reassurance that massive levels of infection are ‘ok’ for society is a gamble—a gamble with unknown long-term costs.
(quote from stanford infectious disease doctor Abraar Karan)
But even now, given that China is such a huge country, I think that the fraction of people inconvenienced by lockdown measures and other disturbances is smaller than in most western countries. Here in Germany, they are lifting most restrictions soon, but for example a lot of teachers are sick - which affects the childrens' parents as they can't go to work, and then their colleagues, and so on. It will take a long time until everything is back to normal.
So far, the suppression policy seems to pay off for China.
In my opinion china's policies have been the best, maybe together with New Zealand. We've basically been living as normal, much more so than any other country, except for some local cases here and there when there was a month of tightening.
That's why I think it's ironic that once the virus basically becomes non-threatening, China has to enter the same type of lockdown as other countries did two years before. And that's why I'm sharing this.
The "zero Covid" approach has been doable with the "old" virus variants, but with Omicron being so infectious, it's (IMHO) simply not feasible anymore. And I wouldn't call it "non-threatening", maybe less threatening. Maybe now we are at the stage where we can really compare it with the flu and handle it with the same approach. Of course maybe another variant will appear that's as infectious as Omicron but as dangerous as the previous variants, then we really have a problem...
Same with delta and Thailand. Thailand (with thousands of km of land border) was making Covid Zero work (ignoring the fucking the tourism industry got) until delta came along. I think China is about to show us Covid Zero can’t survive omicron.
It wouldn't be so bad if it was actually comparable to the Flu. We've had case numbers falling off the cliff since the end of January only for them to start trending up again at the beginning of March. This isn't remotely like the seasonal behaviour of the Flu.
Yes, but here in NZ heavy but most;y short lockdowns, and more importantly border closures have given us the time to get our vax rates into the 90%+ double vaxxed level - it means that Omicron is now zooming through, but our death rate from the beginning of the pandemic is likely to be relatively tiny compared with countries that let it rip - we just crossed 100 deaths total since the beginning of 2020 which is still more than the drop in the road toll in lockdown and reduction in deaths from flu - we're still ahead on the deal - it will get worse before it gets better but 99% of us will still be here.
China is in roughly the same position, apparently their vaccine isn't as good as the mRNA ones, but it still provides protection and again they've had the time to get most people vaccinated before omicron passes through, they'll be better off because of it
Yup, exactly my point. I think the only issues with softer measures are, what if you get a more dangerous variant mixed in.
I live in New Zealand, we’re basically letting COVID rip now.
At least we were lucky enough to get to a high vaccination rate before Omicron started, it’s super infectious.
I got it despite 3 vaccinations and always masking up outside with KN95. But very mild which I guess was the point.
Because of the many lockdowns before, this was the strategy of the government, any more lockdowns would guarantee change of government next election.
> we’re basically letting COVID rip now
This is the way.
Vaccinate the population as much as possible, then pursue super immunity for what's to come via exposure to this luckily less severe and highly contagious variant while the vaccines are still potent.
I don't know how people square "let everyone get it" with points about how immunity after getting it only seems to stick around for 2 months, or even less with variants!
Unless you're saying we should purposefully infect everyone at the same time. I don't have a better answer, but I don't like pretending that this will magically improve just cuz everyone gets sick once.
Also furthering the COVID Zero policy while participating in the global economy is just not feasible now. If every country did what New Zealand did, we would have stomped out this virus the same way we did SARS. I'm sorry that we didn't. But now that major economic zones like Europe and the Americas are taking a "treat COVID like the flu" approach, countries like New Zealand and Taiwan need to choose between following suit or committing to perpetual, never-ending isolation.
New Zealand is an island, i think in many cases China is too ( not geographically )
In Europe, a lot of travel remained possible although it wasn't advised. People work with work permits could relatively easy cross countries too during lockdowns.
The worst that happened was at the start, that people had to stay within their neighborhood for a while, but that changed pretty quickly.
Currently, Omicron is no threat anymore for vaccinated people. So I'm not sure why china would go into lockdown. Vaccine underperforming?
( Belgium)
"In my opinion china's policies have been the best"
Interesting, but could you really express any other opinion without fear of repression of some kind, while living in china?
Yes. I can say anything I like about Xi Jinping when I'm on HN. HN is blocked in China btw.
So you use a VPN/Tor and trust this connection?
Are you sure, the thought of "getting caught" does not influence your opinions?
Because I think, it would influence my opinions I would dare to share.
But I am ignorant about actual way of life in china, is it common and maybe even somewhat normal for tech people to have this freedom to just connect outside of the great firewall?
Chinese are able to express negative opinions without any retribution (beyond their posts being deleted/moderated). What China doesn't accept is challenges to its power structures. Meaning protests, boycotts, unions, organising, public lobbying. Every large business or voluntary organisation has Party members appointed to ensure they don't interfere with the Party's power or strategy.* Sharing a VPN or negative opinion to one friend is fine, sharing to everybody you know on a stage is not.
* https://madeinchinajournal.com/2021/07/15/will-there-be-a-ci...
> Because I think, it would influence my opinions I would dare to share.
I would be amazed if the MSS decides to respond to these random pseudonymous comments I posted on HN/Reddit/Twitter, in English. I expect that talking to them about my shitposts in English (and then coreced into signing an "agreement" that I won't do it again), would be an exciting and entertaining experience :p ofc I might be outliers
> But I am ignorant about actual way of life in china, is it common and maybe even somewhat normal for tech people to have this freedom to just connect outside of the great firewall?
Well, Google is blocked. Baidu or Bing isn't nearly good for random tech queries. More importantly, even though not blocked, GitHub / DockerHub etc is painfully slow in China due to some misfortune about how China is connected to the global Internet. Without a tunnel I just can't work efficiently.
Every corps I worked for in China so far provided free Internet access for employees (at least engineers).
To a first approximation, China does not care about people posting outside the GFW in languages that are not Chinese.
I use a VPN. I do not really trust it but I do not really believe they would care what I write about there policies on HN.
Yeah, it is really ironic. I've heard a story that one of the reasons Sinovac is not as effective as other vaccinations is that they didn't have enough infected people for the trials.
How would that work? They develop the vaccine first, then do the trials. And in any case the Chinese vaccines were trialed outside China (Brazil, Philippines, others - not sure about Sinovac specifically) largely for this reason.
You can not compare a China-style brutal lockdown with anything you have ever seen in a Western country.
Especially Germany never had a real lockdown - as in: You can not leave your apartment no matter what.
Can we trust disease statistics coming out of a system where everybody from regular citizens to local officials is incentivized to not report possible COVID cases?
There is a reason fever medication in China had been selling so well that the government wanted to control its sales (don’t know if they ended up going there or not), while the country reported almost no COVID.
What country doesn't have an incentive to lie about all of this?
I don't disagree with the conclusion that the stats are likely more controlled (if only by having more data) but you need to be precise about the incentives and the means.
In countries where things get super bad, you have massive tents outside hospitals, people dying everywhere. There are 1.3 billion people, loads of which _do_ have VPNs and ways of communicating with the outside world.
The idea that there was a secret pandemic that had a bunch of deaths in China is very hard to square with the reality that everyone has a camera and messaging apps to talk to your neighbors. Especially when it comes to life and death it seems pretty impossible to actually do this. The GFW is not magic.
The incentive for citizens is a threat of their entire city block or rural area being literally locked; possibly social karma consequences (your fault for not complying with PPE measures). For local officials, the threat of losing their jobs because there is no telling if upper management will decide you should be replaced if you report unpleasant facts that violate national point of pride (zero COVID), and everyone really likes a position of power.
In a country with freedoms, democratically elected government as opposed to vengeful dictatorship, and a culture of openness rather than culture of pervasive lying to cover oneself and one’s relatives, the incentives for misreporting are much weaker.
> The idea that there was a secret pandemic that had a bunch of deaths in China is very hard to square with the reality that everyone has a camera and messaging apps to talk to your neighbors.
1) Outside of cities, a.k.a. everywhere the famed one child policy was also ignored and no one cared. 2) You would not go around messaging others about this sensitive matter. You would not film (as another comment reported, your phone may be confiscated). Like with OCP, you would very much keep on the low, and those you tell out of necessity would do the same for you. 3) How many of those people with outside connection disagree with and are willing to violate the party line?
Do you trust inflation stats in the country you live in?
I moved countries and have no idea. If I were in an EEA country, I probably would. In China, probably not.
Is there a point you're trying to make with this question or are you just being defensive?
I imagine it’s been a pretty tough few years for the people there, and they still have to go through the full waves when their vaccines wane in effectiveness and the rest of the world gets back to normal.
I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.
It's been perfectly fine except you haven't been able to leave the country and come back, except for some exceptions. I mean I know people who left for Christmas and came back but that's a lot of work and risking policy change while you're gone.
Do you still have to do social distancing, limiting numbers, limiting hospitality, QR checkins etc? Are people living in fear of Covid etc?
I’m not saying it’s like that in China, but I would find it pretty hard to live like that plus no international travel to maintain zero Covid.
Social distancing has never been a big thing in China because we've had masks for two years. It's only when for example lining up for a covid test that there's been marked one meter distances you had to pay attention to. Only anti-mask backwards countries have promoted social distancing as a measure.
You sometimes check in with qr, but most of the time you just show your green health code which is a qr too, and sign your name, phone number etc on a sheet at the restaurant or such that you enter.
But for a long time now you haven't had to show your health code as there haven't been many cases.
> Social distancing has never been a big thing in China because we've had masks for two years. It's only when for example lining up for a covid test that there's been marked one meter distances you had to pay attention to.
I haven’t seen anyone pay attention to those stickers in over a year. In the group chats I’m in everyone is complaining about how they can’t even test building by building instead of getting entire compounds to wait in line at the same time. Social distancing is not a thing.
You are betraying your preconceptions here if you think masks are the difference between success and failure and QR codes and “health codes” are an acceptable and normal way to live.
That all sounds quite dystopian and of questionable value to me given what we know about Omnicron and the vaccine efficacy.
My point is about social distancing - it's convenient for incompetent leadership because it puts the onus on the population, which they then blame when caes rise, saying they haven't distanced enough. If only they'd provided masks from the start they'd fared better.
> Do you still have to do social distancing, limiting numbers, limiting hospitality, QR checkins etc? Are people living in fear of Covid etc?
Yes to all of the above in New Zealand. I was stuck there for some time after a short trip turned into a multi-month stay when their most recent lockdown was introduced, preventing me from flying out.
There was and still is a lot of fear surrounding Covid (it seems to a staple of their approach), but on talking to family still there, it seems to be slowly coming back down as Omicron rips through and most people come to grips with the idea of catching it.
Which works ok if you're an island in the middle of nowhere, but it works a lot less ok if you're an EU county with people used to the idea of travelling anywhere without even having to show an ID. We've been through some pretty rough two years, but most of restrictions are now lifted or lifting. With the amount of people being either vaccinated or recovered from covid infection we should be over the whole pandemic dance of lockdowns and ever changing travel restrictions. On the other hand, NZ and China will have problems with outbreaks as soon as they lift travel restrictions. It's inevitable.
EU countries have been incredibly incompetent in their handling of covid. What you're saying about expecting to travel freely is just copium. Pretty much all EU leadership should be fired and possibly prosecuted. I'm European myself btw.
One peoples' basic freedom is another peoples' copium.
> I didn’t envy the likes of New Zealand or China throughout because they really have no exit strategy other than eventually losing the war after multiple years of damage and hardship.
I'm in NZ. It's more like multiple years of mostly normal life, while we got vaccination rates up high. The exit strategy has always been opening up again, after delaying and preparing, and that's in progress as we've now given up on containing Omicron, and currently have about 20k cases per day (well, more, as that's hitting limits of testing capacity). Graphs and numbers here: https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/05/coronavirus-covid-1...
>The exit strategy has always been opening up again, after delaying and preparing
Does anyone know of solid evidence to back up this statement?
It's crazy seeing the numbers in Hong Kong and South Korea in the last couple of weeks and have been wondering if and when Omicron would eventually make its way into China.
I would imagine the Chinese health authorities to be very nervous at the moment. Currently in Hong Kong and most people seem to be more concerned about the inconvenience that comes with a positive test than the risk.
What did prevention measures look like in the months leading up to this? It seemed like aggressive policies were enough up until delta, but omicron is just too contagious.
Basically the same as now. People coming in from abroad quarantine for 14 days. Whenever there's a case, they trace and test everyone they've been in contact with, and also the second degree contacts. For one case, they tested more than 10,000 people, off memory.
You're exactly right. Even these measures do not work to contain omicron. The only thing that's changed over the past two years is that the new strain is so much more contagious.
> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized
Would you expect this to continue being the new normal?
From what I've seen in the US, it seems big companies are eager to have people back in offices, and the NYC mayor really want people to come back, because coffee shops suffer.
I find this fascinating in comparison with the situation here in the UK where about 70% of the population are triple vaccinated. Omicron is everywhere, literally. Anecdotally I would say 80-90% of households with school aged kids have had Omicron since the beginning of January and it’s still doing the rounds. We now have no restrictions and even during the peak in Jan/Feb it was very very minimal.
There will be no more restrictions here at all unless something drastic happens later in the year with a new variant.
Omnicron in particular is so low impact that the response is primarily political, especially when you have vaccines and some pre existing immunity.
Countries can choose to pretty much ignore it or go crazy over it as the politicians and Twitter demand.
We just got bored of it in the UK and moved onto Boris’s parties and now Ukraine.
Omicron could be the best thing that happened -- a mild, very infectious variant that gives everyone NATURAL herd immunity to the entire coronavirus family. Why are politicians so afraid of it?
In New Zealand we are currently experiencing our first wave, by captia our case numbers are insane, and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests. In an hour we have as many new cases as we had in total in the first two years of COVID.
But life is going on as semi-normal, most people are being reasonably responsible. 96% of the 12 yr+ population is double vaccinated, and about 60% boosted. The government has ruled out more lockdowns.
I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand, and would be just as well equipped to deal with a "first" wave in 2022.
> system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests
When my social circle finally got COVID, the rapid tests didn't work at all for almost all of us. One friend even tested himself 15 times with them, and he definitely used it right. We used various RATs. PCR showed positive for Omicron though.
I don't think those tests are as reliable as they're claimed to be.
I would think hospital stats matter more than active cases though.
> and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests
Uh, that's not obvious. The RAT tests have massive false positive rates compared with PCR tests. Do they follow up a rapid antigen test with PCR?
The chinese vaccine is garbage too. Even the official numbers are not great, but some countries which bought the Chinese vaccine tried to return it because many batches that they got failed QA tests.
This is very interesting. According to stats provided here [0], 77.5% of New Zealand's population are "fully vaccinated" against COVID. I think differences probably due to selected reference population, your figure is percent of eligible (>=12yo) whereas the number I found is per whole population (including those < 12yo).
In any case 77.5% is pretty impressive, by comparison the US fully vax percent is lower at 65.2%/total population. Also NZ confirmed cases == 7.0% of population, US == 24.2%. Big difference there.
Not sure what set of factors accounts for diff in cases rate. NZ may well have done more to keep the virus from spreading. On the whole though many more questions about COVID than answers.
I'd also guess data collection and reporting practices vary a lot by region or country. Makes data hard to compare and in turn makes it hard to assess what works and what doesn't. I'm keeping a good thought better solutions will emerge.
[0] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
"I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand"
This is probably not true. The Chinese vaccines are known to be much less effective.
NZ doesn't look like it has "ruled out lockdowns", considering your current "restrictions" (politically rebranded lockdowns, because lockdowns are extremely unpopular) are far more strict than most US states have ever had. [1]
It includes insane requirements like requiring face masks in certain outdoor areas.
Forcing children to wear masks in schools at 96% vaccinated sounds insane when vaccinations were pitched as a way to end lockdowns permanently. Did your government just bait and switch the population by keeping "restrictions" after a huge majority of the population got vaccinated? Sure seems like it.
[1] https://covid19.govt.nz/traffic-lights/life-at-red/
Beijing isn't that bad yet, but no express mailing. The youngest can't go to kindergarten as a classmate had a close contact with a positive case. We all tested negative.
It's not bad here yet either. Stuff is closed down but you can still take the subway. Theres probably a hundred communities shut down city wide but that's likely just a fraction of a percent of all communities. But, the number of cases do not stop increasing, so lockdown will certainly come in the next few weeks.
Most likely, but even among districts the actions they take are different. Our old neighborhood (in Chaoyang) has benn closed multiple times. Here in Dongcheng we have only seen that in 2020 during February till April, though 'lockdown' and no classes had been till the new semester in September. We will see what happens. Anyways, best of luck. Stock up on food and work from home. Luckily for n our family we can easily.
Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.
If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron.
The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of lives - even though Omicron is mild, you can still have complications. And China is huge, so a small probability multiplies. They likely prevent millions of cases of long covid. And keep their economy going, where western countries had losses.
Imagine the opposite question: Should they sacrifice thousands of people, and billions of dollars, so a fraction of a percent don't have to spend two weeks in lockdown? Popular support seems to be completely for the lockdown measures. In fact, I think some of it is really over the top (the hazmat suites, the lockdown hotels, stopping a train mid-route because of a suspected contact...) but they do it because the people demand it, not because it is strictly neccessary.
These techniques worked for earlier variants, but Omicron is too virulent. I'm not sure how long it will take for China to realise this.
Getting a common cold is not dangerous to practically anyone. To assert that suppression of a common cold virus is state sanctioned murder is not appropriate. And a people built by a brutal, and frankly evil, regime are not the best arbiters of rational response to totalitariansim.
I mentioned this in my OP. It is becoming clear also to policy makers that these measures are not enough for omicron, and also are not logical when the strain is so mild.
Omicron is not "so mild". It appeared to be mild in many other countries due to high vaccination rates and/or prior infections/deaths. This is not the case in China, where prior infections are very rare. And although the headline stats for the initial 2-dose vaccination rates are good, they didn't use the more effective mRNA vaccines, probably don't have a high recent booster rate, and most crucially, the vaccination rates among the elderly is relatively low.
Look at Hong Kong for a sobering example. They've never had any large outbreak during the entire pandemic until two months ago. Now they're averaging almost 200 Covid deaths per day, on a population of 7 million. Per capita this is worse than the peak of the Alpha and Delta waves in the US or UK. If a big outbreak like Hong Kong happens in China, they might be facing 50k+ deaths per day.
Hong Kong and mainland are totally different. Vaccination rate is very high here and you have been able to get booster shots for months. I agree with your second paragraph though.
I've heard this (and thought this myself), so many times regarding Covid - "Oh, that won't happen to us, we're different".
Whether it was China, or Italy, or South Africa.
At this point I don't think there's any way to actually stop Omicron, and we're very lucky it isn't more deadly.
What I'm saying is that mainland is nothing like hk when it comes to attitude and vaccination rates.
i imagine that 0-covid is a point of pride for politicians and government officials. do you think there will be no issue in having the agility to completely reverse course?
I think the public will agree with softer measures a few months from now as it becomes clear that getting locked down is worse than getting this strain. There are already mentions in the media about this.
I greatly empathize with anyone who lost a loved one to Covid over the past two years. Sorry for your loss.
However, I do think that the reason we took lockdowns as a solution is because China did the same in the first place. But I don't think we should do that again.
I will speak for myself, and I have no epic reason, I am just tired of it all.
My recollection is slightly different. The west did not consider lockdowns a viable strategy until the news started to come out of Italy of the scale of the dead. China might have used lockdowns first but it was Italy that changed minds on their acceptability for western countries.
> The west did not consider lockdowns a viable strategy until the news started to come out of Italy of the scale of the dead.
I think lockdowns were driven by politicians getting pressured and then scared and wanting to "do something", even without evidence that that "something" is necessary or will be effective against the problem.
We're spent decades planning for pandemics. I have contacts who've worked in that field, yet none of them recall plans ever including the need for lockdowns. Instead they report that plans assumed schools would be forced to close due to lack of healthy staff, not due to government mandate.
Then China started welding people in their apartments...[0]
[0] https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/05/how-not-to-ha...
So thoughtful of omicron to wait until after the Olympics!
It’s amazing the costs China are willing to bear for this.
Inevitably they will lose the war, and when they do it is a mild disease going into what I assume is a well vaccinated population.
The UK has been hard at times in 2020 and 2021, but Covid feels like ancient history here now, as it should do.
I think it's the opposite. Chinas economy was quickly back to normal in 2020 while other countries suffered. But it's going to be costly this time, for little return.
The chinese people are probably more conservative and will likely self-lockdown if the gov't doesn't handle the situation well by locking down early.
I think it's probably a better idea to give the populous assurances and demonstrate that outbreaks are contained, so that the populous return after the lockdown with confidence to go out and resume economic activity.
It's such an absurd tradeoff for the Omicron variant, which is less deadly than the flu[1]. COVID isn't ever going away. China seems to be willing to pay a giant recurring cost, eternally, for an infection less harmful than the flu. Insane.
1. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1501773203261165570
As I mentioned, policy will change after this as it becomes clear that it is not fit for omicron.
Came to say the same thing. This feels like a weird blast from the past, which given that Covid first appeared in China, seems just odd really.
Indeed. See my other comment where I mention the irony of this.
Zhejiang seems okay so far for now. Goods availability on Meituan still.
We also have good availability overall, it's just that some places are closed and some are sold out of various goods so you have to order from several. Except tomatoes are gone almost everywhere, except some terrible varieties.
I am guessing this is because of omicron?
It's not clear from the post.
> two weeks ago it became clear to me that we would soon be entering lockdown as the omicron cases won't stop increasing
> Last Friday there were about a 1000 new daily cases nationally, higher than at the peak in 2020
In the last 7 days the city of Vienna alone has reported over 50k additional Covid cases, Austria as a whole reported 284k.[0]
We're long past the point where we should be counting and worrying about daily new cases, at this point it's just not helpful.
The virus has changed, our treatments have changed, our ability to vaccinate has changed. When will our thinking change?
[0] https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/
Seriously, Omicron is so mild, why is everyone going on lockdown? This is finally how everyone can cheaply get herd immunity!
> Hopefully WFH gains acceptance and becomes normalized
Why would this suddenly happen now considering it didn't happen anywhere over the past 2 years?
Because we only had 2-3 months of lockdown before, after that it's been business as usual. But to contain omicron you need literally everyone to stay at home, and also more will need to as I think it will be impossible to not be a second degree contact a month from now.
How is the vaccination situation in China?
90%+ have had two shots. Probably more like 95-99%. You can get third shots now.
yeah but the effectiveness of the sinovax is hardly reliable information imho
Annecdotal but I know a few families in the Philippines where some members got Pfizer and others got Sinovac. The Pfizer group did significantly better when the inevitable occurred (the situation last year was particularly horrific).
china has been doing hard lockdowns for 2 years. just very very targeted very very HARD lockdowns.
Yes. But that's different. The West we're doing national or citywide lockdowns which did not happen to the same extent here. Now, we will definitely see general citywide lockdowns soon. That's what's changed.
I suspect the west did that differently because of :
A) our political maps are very different to China's.
B) Population density is a lot lower in the west than in China.
Crazy that every nation other than china has had 3 big “waves” of Covid cases. Yet somehow china has only had the initial wave of Covid back in early 2020 and nothing else until now.
Very strange.
Not when you look at the restrictions imposed on citizens, there are comments here about office blocks being locked down for 48hrs and everyone tested. Plus all the regional lockdowns where people were forced to stay indoors that were reported widely in western media.
China could simply deal with a virus like COVID-19 far better than the west. They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good".
Personally I would take western democracy/freedoms over an ideal COVID-19 response, but there is no reason to think it didn't work like that in China.
> They have the political environment for it (more authoritarian), and a society more willing to make sacrifices for the "common good".
For a definition of "better" that most sane people wouldn't accept.
China has had many, many outbreaks in the past two years but they've all been contained locally and haven't spread to the national level.
Why is handling a medical emergency properly, strange?
There is a spy technology more dangerous than the coronavirus.
If no one stops the "brain control-spy" technology, all the intellectual property/memory of the people will be taken away by the ruler/bad guy in the future.
At present, spy practitioners are using this technology to take away the memory/intellectual property rights of the people, so as to achieve the purpose of acquiring knowledge without learning.
https://github.com/shion7wong/spy
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