Wednesday, October 27, 2021 5:44 pm2 Comments

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“Unlike many companies, it’s a function of time before Apple wins the sale,” Gene Munster and David Stokman write for Loup Ventures. “In other words, today’s supply pains will eventually equate to 2022 sales gains. We believe investors will leave the September quarter results with a belief that the step up in demand is sustainable, driven by the accelerating digital transformation for the foreseeable future.”

Gene Munster and David Stokman for Loup Ventures:

It’s clear that growth will slow next year, as it will for almost all big tech. For Apple, we believe FY22 revenue growth will likely end up in the mid to high single digits compared to the Street, which is looking for 4% growth. If Apple continues to modestly exceed expectations over the next year, we believe shares of AAPL will continue to appreciate…

Expectations by segment for September [fiscal Q421]:

• Revenue: Loup at $86.4B (up 34% y/y), slightly ahead of the Street at $85.0B. Keep in mind the strong y/y revenue growth is aided by the shift in timing of the iPhone release.

• EPS: Loup at $1.30 (up 77% y/y), slightly ahead of the Street at $1.24.

• iPhone revenue: Loup at $42.0B (up 59% y/y), ahead of the Street at $41.2B. Our estimate of 59% growth gets about a 30% benefit from the shift in timing of the latest iPhone release. Adjusting for the timing of the iPhone, we believe overall iPhone sales would have been up about 25% y/y.

• Mac: Loup at $9.9B (up 10% y/y), above the Street at $9.1B.

• iPad: Loup at $7.3B (up 8% y/y), ahead of the Street at $7.2B.

• Wearables, Home and Accessories: Loup at $9.7B (up 24% y/y), ahead of the Street at $9.4B.

• Services: Loup at $17.5B (up 20% y/y), essentially inline with the Street at $17.7B.

• Gross margin: Loup at 42.5%, ahead of the Street at 41.0%.

MacDailyNews Note: Apple will report Q421 earnings on Thursday, October 28th after market close. As usual, we will have the results for you as soon as they are releases, right around 1:30 p.m. PDT / 4:30 p.m. EDT. We will also as usual cover Apple’s conference call which follows at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET with live notes. Look for both links on our home page starting at 1:30 p.m. PDT / 4:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday!

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