投资时的情绪问题
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投资时的情绪问题
作者： physixfan
虽然很多人理性上都知道一件事情叫做 “time in the market beats timing the market” 或者说“不要择时”，但是真正在股市急速下跌的时候还能保持理性是比较难的。这周SP500指数下跌了10%+。每到这个时候，很多人都在想：我是不是该卖VOO了？我是不是该大举入场抄底了？我是不是该买3x反指SQQQ甚至恐慌指数VXX了？我的确认识有高手平时的仓位就是100% VTI然后现在依然很淡定只偶尔看盘不操作的，不过我自认为我还做不到这种境界。
我目前主要的投资方式还是在 Adaptive Risk Parity 这个策略及其变种上，当然，并不是全都是3x的UPRO/TMF，我还有很大一部分仓位在不加杠杆的VOO/EDV上，总杠杆率是大于1但小于3的。其实这个 adaptive 的策略实际上也是一种 timing the market 的策略：它在试图用上个月的 volatility 去预测下个月的 volatility。本质上来讲，这种 timing 策略可能和均线理论一样完全无效，即固定一个40/60或55/45的比例也许最后效果也没差别。不过我自认为这种只改变portfolio里面俩东西的比例的 timing 策略有一定的好处：你如果严格执行这种策略，就不会有把钱撤出市场的冲动。这就比 naive 的 timing the market 好多了，永远不把钱撤出市场就不会错过大的涨势。因此我个人认为这样的 timing 策略可以有效缓解投资时的情绪问题，帮助 stay the course。
近期股市跌得特别迅速，于是有一些读者在问我是如何应对的。我的实际应对就是前两天开始我就提前 rebalance 了一下，但是我要强调一下这个操作完全没有理论依据，完全就是为了满足我的心理需求的。我个人感觉在市场明显 volatility 变大的时候也许应该适当增加一下 rebalance 频率，不过再重复一遍这个想法完全没有理论依据。大家也请不要把我当做投资方面的大神，我也只是刚开始学习投资没多久的萌新，也在不断学习/犯错中，我只是比大部分人更喜欢分享自己的心得而已…【更新】后来的走势其实打脸打的piapiapia，完全stay the course才是正解，提前rebalance、根据波动率降杠杆之类的骚操作都是会导致回报率降低的。投资这个策略需要信仰，千万不可以因为短期波动而止损。
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请教下为什么是VOO/EDV而不是VOO/BND呢？
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