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Why Our Predictions About AI's Abilities Are Always Wrong
source link: https://digg.com/technology/link/why-our-predictions-about-ai-s-abilities-are-always-wrong-li1P5v1Uzz
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Why Our Predictions About AI's Abilities Are Always Wrong
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We keep overestimating the ability of AI to quickly pick up on complex skills because we don't fully understand how complex those skills are. This has led to years of moonshot predictions about the future of AI.
The Lede
At a conference at Dartmouth in 1956, an AI research council said that "every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it." Though AI can now play expert games of chess, Go and "Jeopardy!", it's still nowhere near matching human intelligence. Why do we keep getting our goals wrong?Key Details
- We've learned over time that the skills required to play games like Go and chess are far more straightforward than processing words and images.
- While computers can use algorithms to process data, they currently can't understand that data — so they can't yet think critically enough to make decisions about healthcare or safely drive a car.
- Cost is also an issue: a 2020 article from MIT estimated that "for every $1 you spend developing an algorithm, you must spend $100 to deploy and support it."
The Source
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